2012年-世界发展银行全球_Social_Exclusion_in_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_and_the_Global_Crisis_50页_1mb

Summary of "Social Exclusion in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Global Crisis"

Core Content

This document, published by the World Bank in March 2012, analyzes the impact of the global financial crisis on poverty and social exclusion in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), using data from the Life in Transition Survey (LITS-SM) conducted in late 2010. It explores how the crisis affected households across different dimensions of social inclusion and compares these findings with EU Member States' indicators.

Main Findings

Economic Impact of the Crisis

• Before the crisis, BiH experienced strong economic growth, with the national poverty headcount falling from 17.7% in 2004 to 14% in 2007.
• The financial crisis caused a sharp contraction in 2009 (-3.1% y-o-y GDP growth), and the recovery has been slow.
• Over 60% of households in BiH reported being affected either a great deal or a fair amount by the crisis.
• Urban areas were more severely impacted than rural areas, with 40.4% of urban households reporting a great deal of impact compared to 29.3% in rural areas.
• The poorest quintile (bottom consumption group) was most affected, with over 70% of households reporting significant impact.

Coping Mechanisms

• Households adopted various coping strategies, including reducing consumption of luxury goods (46%), cutting TV/phone/internet services (18%), and delaying utility payments (11%).
• Over 29% of rural households had to reduce consumption of staple foods, while 13% of urban households did the same.
• Job losses, wage reductions, and reduced remittances were the primary pathways through which the crisis affected households.
• Wage reductions were more common than job losses, especially among households relying on wages or salaries.
• Reduced remittances were the most common pathway for households not reliant on wages or salaries.

Social Exclusion Indicators

• At-risk-of-poverty rate: 1.5 million people (30% of the population) were at risk of poverty, defined as households with income per equivalent adult below 60% of the national median.
• Material deprivation: 1.7 million people (37% of the population) faced severe material deprivation, which includes inability to afford unexpected expenses, proper nutrition, and basic utilities.
• Low work intensity households: 26% of the population (about 1 million people) lived in households where the number of months worked by working-age members was less than 20% of the theoretical maximum.
• These indicators show that BiH has a higher rate of social exclusion compared to the EU-27, with 59% of the population at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2010.

Comparison with EU Countries

• BiH’s social exclusion indicators are comparable to those of the EU, allowing for cross-country analysis.
• The EU's leading indicator of at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (ARoPE) captures over 80% of the population in the lowest consumption quintile, indicating a strong correlation between consumption-based poverty and social exclusion measures.

Key Drivers of Social Exclusion

• Education and employment: Better education and labour market attachment are strongly correlated with lower poverty and material deprivation.
• Gender differences: In BiH, men and women face similar poverty risks, unlike in the EU where women are more likely to be at risk.
• Urban vs. rural: Urban areas experienced higher rates of material deprivation and low work intensity than rural areas, which is contrary to patterns in Western Europe.

Key Information

• The LITS-SM survey was designed to fill the gap in data following the 2007 HBS survey, as no updated HBS data was available.
• The survey highlights the need for a multidimensional approach to poverty and social inclusion measurement, which can provide a more comprehensive understanding of social conditions.
• The new social inclusion indicators allow BiH to compare itself with EU countries and learn from their policy debates on social inclusion.
• The integration of these indicators with existing HBS data ensures continuity in poverty monitoring and provides a basis for future policy development.

Conclusion

The financial crisis had a significant and lasting impact on poverty and social exclusion in BiH. The multidimensional approach used in the LITS-SM survey reveals that social exclusion is widespread and that the poorest households are most affected. The findings suggest that BiH needs to adopt and refine its measurement tools to better understand and address the complex nature of poverty and social exclusion, aligning with EU standards to improve policy effectiveness and international comparability.