战略与国际研究中心-PONARS-Policy-Memo-091_4页_76kb

The Security of Russia's Nuclear Arsenal: The Human Factor

Core Content

This document, authored by Deborah Yarsike Ball and published by PONARS Policy Memo 91 in October 1999, examines the security of Russia's nuclear arsenal with a particular focus on the human factor rather than the physical security measures. It argues that the overall state of the Russian military is a significant concern for the security of its nuclear weapons, despite claims by military officials like Col.-Gen. Igor Valynkin that they are well-controlled and secure.

Main Views

• Military Claims Should Be Questioned: The document criticizes the Russian military's assertions that their nuclear weapons are secure and that their nuclear units are immune to the broader issues in the military. These claims are viewed as potentially misleading or politically motivated.

• Nuclear Weapons Are Not Fully Secure: The security of Russia's nuclear arsenal is more dependent on the reliability and integrity of the personnel handling them than on the physical infrastructure or equipment. The document suggests that the military as a whole is in a poor state, and this affects the nuclear forces as well.

• Military as a Reflection of Society: The Russian military is portrayed as a mirror of the broader societal problems, including poor health, drug abuse, hazing, and economic hardship. These issues undermine the professionalism and loyalty of military personnel, which is critical for the safe handling of nuclear weapons.

Key Information

Background

• Nuclear Weapons as Strategic Asset: Nuclear weapons are central to Russia's military power, especially as its conventional forces have deteriorated due to economic crisis and neglect.
• Shift in Military Doctrine: Russia has abandoned its "no-first-use" policy and now considers using nuclear weapons in response to large-scale conventional attacks.
• Storage and Control: Nuclear weapons are stored in local sites and allocated to units, but not under their direct control. This adds a layer of security, but the document questions its effectiveness.

The State of the Russian Military

• Large Military Force with Poor Resources: Russia has about one million soldiers, but military reform has focused on reducing size, not improving readiness or quality.
• Low Training and Equipment Quality: The Ground Forces received no new major equipment in 1998, and other services had minimal upgrades.
• Military as a Reflection of Society: The military suffers from the same social and economic issues as the rest of Russia, including poor health care, crime, and corruption.

Health Issues

• High Rates of Unfitness for Service: Nearly half of conscripts are deemed unfit for military service due to health problems.
• Poor Living Conditions: Lack of quality water, food, and electricity in many regions contributes to health deterioration among military personnel.
• Health Problems on the Rise: Cardiovascular disease, tuberculosis, AIDS, and psychiatric disorders are increasingly prevalent in the military.

Drug Abuse

• Widespread Drug Use: Over half of soldiers apprehended with drugs began using them during their service.
• Lack of Effective Control: Despite efforts to exclude drug users from the draft, the problem persists.
• Uncertainty About Nuclear Personnel: It is unclear whether drug abuse affects the strategic missile troops or the 12th Main Directorate.

Hazing

• Dedovshchina (Bullying): This brutal practice is common and leads to draft avoidance and low morale.
• Corruption and Misconduct: Even officers are not immune, with reports of alcohol-fueled violence and physical abuse of conscripts.

Economic Hardship

• Poor Pay and Benefits: Many officers do not receive their wages on time, and when they do, the amount is often insufficient.
• Brain Drain of Officers: Young officers are leaving the military for better opportunities in the civilian sector.
• Secondary Jobs and Illegal Activities: Officers are forced to seek illegal means to support their families, which undermines military professionalism and loyalty.

Crime

• Rampant Corruption and Theft: Embezzlement, theft of military equipment, and illegal activities are widespread.
• Organized Crime Infiltration: Former officers are involved in mafia activities, including using conscripts for construction and profit.
• Legal and Institutional Failures: The Ministry of Defense has acknowledged a significant number of criminal charges against officers, indicating a deep-rooted problem.

Conclusion

• Uncertainty About Nuclear Unit Integrity: It is unclear whether the nuclear units are insulated from broader military issues.
• Need for Vigilance: The document raises critical questions about the effectiveness of nuclear security in light of the social and institutional challenges facing the Russian military.
• Call for Realistic Assessment: The author emphasizes the need for a realistic and critical evaluation of the security of Russia's nuclear arsenal, rather than relying on official statements.

Summary

The security of Russia's nuclear arsenal is not solely dependent on physical safeguards but is significantly influenced by the condition and behavior of the personnel responsible for its control. The overall decline in the Russian military, including health issues, drug abuse, hazing, economic hardship, and rising crime, casts doubt on the reliability of these personnel. While the nuclear forces may be considered an elite group, the document argues that they are not entirely insulated from the broader societal and institutional crises. Therefore, the Western concern for the security of Russia's nuclear weapons is justified, and a realistic assessment of the human factor is essential.