世界贸易组织最新全球主要粮食市场信息月度报告发布-15页_2mb

2021 Food Market Monitor Summary

Core Content

The Market Monitor No. 94 – December 2021 provides an overview of the global supply-demand outlook for major food commodities including wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans, along with updates on crop conditions, policy developments, and market indicators. The report is issued by the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), a collective effort by ten international organizations and entities.

Key Market Developments

World Supply-Demand Outlook

• Wheat:

  • Production: Trimmed further due to lower estimates in Brazil and the UK, resulting in a 1% drop from the previous year's record.
  • Utilization: Lowered in 2021/22 due to weaker feed use expectations, especially in the EU, but still rose by 2.0% compared to the previous season.
  • Trade: Expected to increase by 2.2% in 2021/22, driven by robust demand from the Near East to compensate for reduced harvests.
  • Stocks: Forecast to scale up monthly, but still expected to fall 1.7% below opening levels, with most of the drawdown concentrated among major exporters.

• Maize:

  • Production: Raised due to higher-than-expected outputs in Ukraine and the US, leading to a 3.6% increase over last year, a new record.
  • Utilization: Forecast to grow by 2.6% in 2021/22, mainly due to a faster rise in ethanol production in the US.
  • Trade: Contracted by 1.8% from the 2020/21 record, due to weaker demand from China and Viet Nam.
  • Stocks: Expected to surpass opening levels by 2.5%, primarily due to higher inventories in China and a partial recovery in the US.

• Rice:

  • Production: Barely changed month-over-month, with upward revisions in Pakistan and the US offsetting less buoyant output in Thailand and Bangladesh.
  • Utilization: Still expected to reach a fresh peak, with global per capita food intake rising by 0.6% in 2021/22.
  • Trade: Forecast to grow for the third successive year, supported by rebounds in exports from Thailand, Brazil, Myanmar, and Pakistan, while Indian shipments could decline slightly and Viet Nam's continue to fall.
  • Stocks: Remain at historical highs, sustained by four consecutive seasons of accumulation in major rice exporters.

• Soybeans:

  • Production: Forecast to rise marginally, with upward revisions in Brazil and India offsetting a lower forecast for the US.
  • Utilization: Trimmed slightly due to lower domestic crush expectations in China, but global consumption is still forecast to grow by about 3%.
  • Trade: Scaled down, mainly due to smaller import expectations from China.
  • Stocks: Lifted further, tied to higher forecasts for Brazil and the US, while global inventories could still fall below the average level.

Crop Conditions

• Wheat: Winter wheat in the northern hemisphere is entering winter months under mixed conditions. In the southern hemisphere, harvesting continues under favorable to exceptional conditions. Argentina and the US report mixed conditions due to dryness, while Australia has favorable conditions with yields above the 5-year average.
• Maize: Harvesting in the northern hemisphere is wrapping up under favorable conditions, except in the Dakotas. In the southern hemisphere, sowing progresses under favorable conditions. Brazil and Argentina report favorable sowing conditions.
• Rice: Harvesting in China and India is wrapping up, with favorable conditions in most regions. In Southeast Asia, wet-season rice in Thailand and the Philippines is impacted by heavy rains, while dry-season rice in Indonesia is being harvested.
• Soybeans: Harvesting in Canada is wrapping up under favorable conditions in Ontario, but poor in the Prairies due to drought. Brazil reports favorable sowing conditions, and Argentina is progressing with sowing due to recent rainfall.

Climate Influences

• The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in the La Niña phase, with a high chance of continuing through December to February and into April.
• La Niña conditions are expected to bring below-average precipitation to East Africa, Central and South Asia, southern South America, the southern US, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia.
• Above-average precipitation is expected in parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
• The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has weakened to a neutral state.

Policy Developments

• Brazil:

  • Allowed imports of genetically modified wheat on 11 November.
  • Applied a 10% tariff reduction on 87% of goods and services due to pandemic-related emergency circumstances.

• Egypt:

  • Announced new wheat procurement prices ranging from EGP 800 to EGP 820/Ardeb (USD 340.55 to USD 349.07 per tonne), up by around 10% from March.

• Russia:

  • Introduced a 6-month export quota on nitrogen fertilizers and complex nitrogen-containing fertilizers (5.9 and 5.35 million tonnes, respectively) to curb rising food prices.
  • Considered introducing a grain export quota from 15 February to 30 June 2022, based on production and exports from June 2021.

• China:

  • Proposed regulatory changes to genetically modified crops, including maize, with the draft open for public comment until 12 December.
  • Suspended the additional 25% import duty on certain US products, including maize and rice, initially effective until 1 December 2021.

• EU:

  • Funded a 387 billion Euros (USD 436 billion) agricultural support package from 2023 onwards, with 20% of direct payments allocated to ecosystems, increasing to 25% by 2025-2027.
  • Set up a 450 million Euros crisis fund to address market disruptions.

• Philippines:

  • Temporarily suspended phytosanitary import clearance for rice from Viet Nam due to a bumper domestic harvest.

• Viet Nam:

  • Revised several Most Favourable Nation (MFN) tariffs by Decree 101/2021.

• Thailand:

  • Announced a THB 76 billion (USD 2.3 billion) support package for rice farmers to address falling market prices, with additional measures totaling THB 155 billion (USD 4.6 billion) to counteract the impacts of the pandemic and adverse weather.

Key Market Indicators

• International Prices: Continued to climb, with some crops reaching record highs.
• Futures Market (US): Showed volatility, reflecting market uncertainties.
• Fertilizer Outlook: Prices and availability were affected by export quotas and global demand.
• Ocean Freight Markets: Experienced fluctuations, impacting global trade logistics.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges faced by food markets in 2021, global supplies remained adequate, and logistical bottlenecks were temporary. However, food inflation remained a significant concern. The report highlights the importance of monitoring climate conditions, policy changes, and market dynamics to ensure global food security and stability in the coming year.