全球主要粮食市场信息月度报告（英）-15页_2mb

Market Monitor Summary - December 2021

Core Content

The December 2021 Market Monitor provides an overview of the global food market conditions, focusing on wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. It highlights the impact of climate, production, utilization, trade, and policy developments on global food security and prices.

Main Crops Overview

Wheat

• Production: Global production for 2021 fell by nearly 1 percent due to lower estimates for Brazil and the UK.
• Utilization: Global utilization for 2021/22 is expected to decrease by 2.0 percent, primarily due to weaker feed use expectations in the EU.
• Trade: Trade is forecast to increase by 2.2 percent, driven by demand from the Near East to compensate for reduced harvests.
• Stocks: Global stocks are expected to fall by 1.7 percent below opening levels, with most of the drawdown concentrated in major exporters.

Maize

• Production: Global production for 2021 is expected to increase by 3.6 percent, mainly due to higher-than-expected outputs in Ukraine and the US.
• Utilization: Global utilization for 2021/22 is expected to grow by 2.6 percent, largely due to a faster rise in US ethanol production.
• Trade: Trade is forecast to decrease by 1.8 percent due to weaker demand from China and Viet Nam.
• Stocks: Global stocks are expected to rise by 2.5 percent, mainly due to higher inventories in China and a partial recovery in the US.

Rice

• Production: Global production for 2021 barely changed, with upward revisions for Pakistan and the US offsetting less buoyant output prospects for Thailand and Bangladesh.
• Utilization: Global utilization for 2021/22 is expected to reach a new peak, with global per capita food intake increasing by 0.6 percent.
• Trade: Trade is forecast to grow for the third consecutive year, supported by rebounds in exports from Thailand, Brazil, Myanmar, and Pakistan, while Indian shipments may decrease slightly and Viet Nam's exports continue to fall.
• Stocks: Global stocks are expected to remain at historical highs, sustained by a fourth successive season of accumulations in major rice exporters.

Soybeans

• Production: Global production for 2021/22 is forecast to increase marginally, with upward revisions for Brazil and India offsetting a lower forecast for the US.
• Utilization: Global utilization is expected to decrease slightly due to lower domestic crush in China, but global consumption is still forecast to grow by about 3 percent from the previous season.
• Trade: Trade is expected to scale down, mainly due to reduced import expectations by China.
• Stocks: Global stocks are expected to increase further, tied to higher production forecasts for Brazil and the US, though they could still fall below average levels.

Key Policy Developments

• Brazil:

  • Allowed imports of genetically modified wheat on 11 November.
  • Applied a 10 percent tariff reduction on 87 percent of goods and services due to pandemic-related emergency circumstances.

• Egypt:

  • Announced new government procurement prices for locally produced wheat, ranging from EGP 800 to EGP 820/Ardeb (USD 340.55 to USD 349.07 per tonne), which are around percent higher than those from March.

• Russia:

  • Introduced a 6-month export quota for nitrogen fertilizers and complex nitrogen-containing fertilizers, from 1 December 2021 to 31 May 2022, to curb rising food prices.
  • Considered introducing a grain export quota from 15 February to 30 June 2022, with the quota size to be determined based on 2021 production and exports since June 2021.
  • Revised its wheat export tax formula on 10 November, setting the tax at 70 percent of the difference between market price and USD 200 per tonne.

• China:

  • Published a draft document proposing regulatory changes for genetically modified crops, including maize, with public comment until 12 December.
  • Suspended the additional 25 percent import duty on certain US products, including maize and rice, effective from 1 November 2021.

• EU:

  • Approved a fundamental reform of agriculture subsidies, increasing funding for smaller farms and rewarding sustainable practices starting in 2023.
  • Allocated 387 billion Euros (USD 436 billion) for payments to farmers and rural development support.
  • Introduced a 450 million Euro crisis fund to mitigate market disruptions.

• India:

  • Repealed three farm laws passed in September 2020 on 11 November.

• Viet Nam:

  • Revised several Most Favourable Nation (MFN) tariffs by decree 101/2021.

• Thailand:

  • Launched a support package worth THB 76 billion (USD 2.3 billion) to assist rice farmers amid falling prices.
  • Announced a wider assistance package of THB 155 billion (USD 4.6 billion) to address the impacts of the pandemic and adverse weather.

Climate Influences

• The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in the La Niña phase, with a 92% chance of continuing through December to February and a 69% chance for February-March-April.
• La Niña conditions are expected to bring below-average precipitation to East Africa, Central and South Asia, southern South America, the southern US, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia.
• They are also expected to bring above-average precipitation to parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
• The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has weakened to a neutral state.

Crop Conditions

Wheat

• Argentina: Harvesting in the north under poor conditions, while the main producing provinces are starting under favourable conditions with increased sown area.
• Australia: Harvesting continues with favourable and exceptional conditions, yields above 5-year average.
• EU: Winter wheat well established in northern countries under favourable conditions, sowing continues in southern countries with some dryness.
• UK: Favourable conditions.
• Ukraine: Mixed conditions with soil moisture deficits increasing due to little rainfall.
• Russia: Winter wheat areas remain drier than average, but soil moisture levels have stabilized.
• Turkey: Mixed conditions for winter wheat sowing due to dryness in central and southern regions.
• China: Favourable conditions for winter wheat.
• India: Sowing beginning under favourable conditions in northern and central states.
• US: Mixed conditions for winter wheat due to dryness in northern and northwest regions.
• Canada: Favourable conditions in Ontario, dryness in Prairies.

Maize

• US: Harvesting in northern states under generally favourable conditions, except in the Dakotas where dryness reduced yields.
• Canada: Harvesting wraps up under favourable conditions in Ontario and Quebec, poor in Manitoba.
• Mexico: Harvesting of spring-summer crop continues under favourable conditions.
• Ukraine: Harvesting wraps up under favourable conditions.
• India: Sowing of Rabi season crops begins under favourable conditions.
• Brazil: Sowing of spring-planted crop continues under favourable conditions, with crops in the main producing South region entering vegetative to reproductive stages.
• Argentina: Sowing of early-planted crop continues under favourable conditions due to recent rainfall.
• South Africa: Favourable conditions with widespread rain since mid-November supporting sowing activities.

Rice

• China: Harvesting of late-season crop wraps up under favourable conditions.
• India: Favourable conditions in southern and eastern regions as Kharif rice harvesting wraps up and Rabi rice sowing begins.
• Indonesia: Favourable conditions for dry-season rice as harvesting continues at a slower pace than last year.
• Viet Nam: Harvesting in the north under favourable conditions with yields slightly above last year's.
• Thailand: Mixed conditions for wet-season rice due to excess rainfall and flooding in northern and northeast regions.
• Philippines: Mixed conditions for wet-season rice due to damage from heavy rainfall, notably from tropical storm Maring in October.
• Brazil: Sowing ongoing under favourable conditions.

Soybeans

• Canada: Harvesting wraps up in Ontario under favourable conditions, poor in Prairies due to drought.
• Brazil: Sowing continues in main producing regions under favourable conditions.
• Central-West: Sowing wraps up, most crops in vegetative stage, few entering reproductive stage.
• Argentina: Sowing of early-planted crop progresses under favourable conditions due to recent rainfall.

Market Indicators

• The Market Monitor is a product of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), providing a synopsis of major market developments and policy drivers.
• It is a collective assessment by ten international organizations and entities forming the AMIS Secretariat.
• The report highlights the resilience of global food markets despite uncertainties in production, distribution, and consumption.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges faced in 2021, global food markets showed resilience, with supplies remaining adequate and logistical bottlenecks proving short-lived. However, food inflation remained a significant concern. The coming year is expected to bring more stability, ensuring adequate food access for vulnerable populations. Climate conditions and policy changes will continue to influence market dynamics, with the potential for both challenges and opportunities.