高盛-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场策略观点：通胀死灰复燃与新兴市场“熔化”贸易-20180119-23页_1mb

报告摘要

EM Strategy Views Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the emerging market (EM) investment strategy, focusing on the resurgence of reflation and the potential for an EM "melt-up" trade. It evaluates the performance of EM equities and credit, compares them with developed market (DM) assets, and highlights the underlying fundamentals and macroeconomic forecasts that support the positive outlook for EM assets.

Main Points

1. Reflation Resurgence and EM "Melt-up" Trade

Reflation is resurging in DM assets, characterized by rising growth, inflation expectations, and a flattening yield curve.
The term "melt-up" refers to valuations overshooting in a bull market, leading to a spike in prices before a reversal.
The EM rally is driven primarily by improving earnings and economic growth, not by speculative valuation increases.
EM valuations have room to improve relative to DM due to stronger economic fundamentals and a better earnings outlook.
EM credit spreads are fairly valued and are justified by economic activity levels, not by speculative demand.

2. EM Equity Performance is EPS-Driven

EM equities have shown strong performance, mainly due to earnings growth rather than changes in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios.
In 2017, the 34% rise in MSCI EM was attributed to 22% local currency EPS growth, 5% EM FX appreciation, and 5% valuation expansion.
EM equities have not shown signs of a "melt-up" as seen in past cycles, and the growth premium in DM cyclicals vs. defensives has not filtered through to EM.
EM has started to re-rate relative to DM, and the DM cyclicals vs. defensives premium has widened, suggesting potential for EM to catch up.

3. EM Credit Spreads and Repricing

EM credit spreads are tight, but they are justified by economic activity levels and growth expectations.
The EM credit spreads are in line with historical levels relative to growth, indicating no speculative overvaluation.
EM credit is positioned for growth, while US corporate credit is in a late cycle, creating an opportunity for EM credit to outperform.

Key Information

4. Macroeconomic Forecasts and Activity

GDP growth for major EMs is expected to rise, with China and India showing the highest growth rates.
Inflation is expected to increase, with China and Turkey showing the most significant increases.
Policy rates are expected to rise in most EMs, with Russia and South Africa showing the most substantial increases.
FX forecasts indicate that EM currencies are expected to appreciate, with Mexico, Czech Republic, and Indonesia showing the highest appreciation potential.

5. Valuation and Earnings Growth

MSCI EM P/E (NTM) is currently at 13.1x, indicating room for improvement.
Earnings growth is expected to rise, with India and China showing the highest growth rates.
EM cross-asset valuation shows that EM equity is currently undervalued relative to DM equity, and EM credit is undervalued relative to US HY.

Conclusion

EM assets are not in danger of a "melt-up" due to improving fundamentals and earnings growth.
The resurgence of reflation in DM is positive for EM, as it suggests a growth environment.
EM credit is poised for growth, with spreads justified by economic activity.
EM has room for upside in both equity and credit, and the catch-up trade is a top trade for 2018.