标普全球-新兴市场的信贷状况——经济脆弱，复苏不均，病毒死灰复燃（英文）-2020.9-32页

Summary of Credit Conditions in Emerging Markets (EMs) - Sept. 29, 2020

Core Content

The document outlines the evolving credit conditions and macroeconomic outlook for emerging markets (EMs) as of September 29, 2020, with a focus on the impact of the pandemic, policy responses, and the potential for economic and credit risks. It highlights the gradual improvement in credit conditions due to supportive financing, economic recovery, and the expectation of a vaccine by mid-2021. However, it also notes the risks that could hinder this recovery, including the phase-out of credit forbearance and fiscal stimulus, a potential resurgence of the virus, and geopolitical tensions.

Main Points

Credit Conditions

• Credit conditions in EMs have improved gradually due to supportive financing, economic recovery, and the expectation of a vaccine.
• Negative rating actions have plateaued, but rating levels and outlooks remain negative, indicating higher leverage and vulnerability to shocks.
• A slower economic recovery or failure to deliver a vaccine could lead to further downgrades and defaults.
• Speculative-grade issuers, especially those in the 'B' category, are most vulnerable to a downside scenario.
• Five out of 16 key EMs have a negative outlook, and sovereign downgrades are often followed by negative rating actions on domestic corporations and banks.

Macroeconomic Outlook

• EM economies are recovering from a steep decline in activity, though the pace is uneven.
• The median decline in GDP for EMs (excluding China) in Q2 2020 was around 45% (seasonally adjusted annualized rate).
• EM GDP is expected to decline by 6.4% in 2020 and grow by 6.2% in 2021.
• India and the Philippines saw sharp downward revisions in GDP forecasts due to poor virus control, while Brazil, Poland, Russia, and Turkey saw upward revisions due to better-than-expected performance.
• Risks to the forecast remain tilted to the downside, linked to the pandemic and policy missteps.
• Geopolitical tensions, especially in Russia and Turkey, have risen during the third quarter.

Key Risks

• Pandemic Resurgence: The virus could surge again with winter and flu season, stressing health systems and government budgets. Lockdowns or social-distancing measures may be reintroduced, undermining the recovery.
• Policy Missteps: EMs with large fiscal stimulus packages may struggle with fiscal pressures, while those that failed to contain the virus may face prolonged low GDP growth and job losses.
• Debt Overhang: High levels of debt among governments and corporations could constrain economic recovery and increase vulnerability to further shocks.
• Social Unrest: Income inequality, limited access to health services, and lockdown fatigue could lead to social unrest and political instability.
• Financing Volatility: Despite improving conditions, EM financing remains volatile, with risks of capital outflows if recovery slows or the virus resurges.

Regional Credit Conditions

• EM credit conditions are improving, supported by central banks' monetary stimulus and asset purchases.
• Investors are gradually returning to EMs, but sentiment remains fragile.
• Central banks have eased liquidity requirements and relaxed capital and provisioning rules to support domestic credit flow.
• Bond issuance in China has surpassed 2019 levels, while other EMs in Asia and Latin America are still recovering.

Sector Trends

• Sectors linked to home-based activities (essential retail, media, telecoms) have been less affected.
• Many corporations are struggling with liquidity due to subdued revenues and weak economic conditions.
• SMEs and households are particularly vulnerable as they face financial stress from the pandemic and the withdrawal of support measures.
• Banks have remained resilient, but their asset quality may weaken as financial stress among SMEs and households surfaces.

Sovereign Risks

• APAC EMs: A resurgence in virus cases has dented 2021 growth expectations, and sovereigns may struggle to close budget deficits.
• U.S.-China Relations: Tensions are likely to escalate, with potential policy moves affecting global trade and financial markets.
• Capital Flows: EMs with high leverage may face sudden capital outflows if investor sentiment deteriorates.
• China's Deleveraging: If economic or labor market pressures increase, China may allow credit growth to resume, which could have negative implications for other EMs in the region.

Key Information

• Overall Recovery: EM credit conditions are improving, but recovery is fragile and uneven.
• Vaccine Expectations: A vaccine is expected by mid-2021, which could support recovery, but uncertainty remains.
• Investor Sentiment: Investor appetite for EMs is recovering, but volatility and fragile sentiment persist.
• Debt Levels: Rising leverage among governments and corporations is a key risk factor.
• SMEs and Households: These groups are particularly vulnerable to economic shocks and may face liquidity issues as support measures expire.
• Geopolitical Tensions: U.S.-China trade and financial tensions, along with regional conflicts, pose additional risks to EMs.
• Rating Actions: Negative rating actions have plateaued, but the risk of further downgrades remains high.

Conclusion

While credit conditions in EMs are improving, the path to recovery remains uncertain and fraught with risks. The phase-out of fiscal and credit support, potential virus resurgence, and geopolitical tensions could all undermine the economic and credit recovery. The document emphasizes the importance of continued policy support, effective containment measures, and stable investor sentiment in navigating these challenges.