IMF-2023年世界经济展望报告-10月刊（英）-2023-182页_4mb

World Economic Outlook Summary: Navigating Global Divergences (2023, October)

Core Content

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 2023, titled Navigating Global Divergences, provides an analysis of the global economic recovery and the challenges it faces. It highlights the slow and uneven recovery from the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the cost-of-living crisis. The report underscores the growing divergence between advanced and emerging market economies, and the complex policy environment required to address these challenges.

Main Views

1. Global Economic Outlook

• Global growth is expected to slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, a 0.1 percentage point downgrade from the July 2023 projections.
• Headline inflation is projected to decline from 9.2% in 2022 to 5.9% in 2023 and 4.8% in 2024.
• Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is also expected to fall, but more gradually, to 4.5% in 2024.
• The "soft landing" scenario is increasingly consistent with the projections, with modest unemployment increases in advanced economies, particularly the United States, where unemployment is forecast to rise from 3.6% to 3.9% by 2025.

2. Regional and Economic Divergences

• Advanced economies are experiencing a more pronounced slowdown than emerging market and developing economies.
• The United States has shown resilience in consumption and investment, while the Euro Area has seen downward revisions in activity.
• Emerging markets have generally been resilient, with the notable exception of China, which faces growing headwinds from the real estate crisis and weakening confidence.

3. Key Drivers of the Slowdown

• Services recovery has nearly completed, but now services activity is weakening, alongside a persistent manufacturing slowdown.
• Tighter monetary policy is a key factor in the slowdown, with uneven transmission across countries.
• Commodity price shocks from the previous year continue to shape inflation and activity, with energy-dependent economies experiencing steeper price increases and slower growth.

Key Information

1. Risks to the Outlook

• China's real estate crisis remains a major risk to the global economy. A rapid decline in prices could worsen bank and household balance sheets, while artificial price support may crowd out other investments and reduce land sales.
• Commodity price volatility is expected to increase due to geopolitical tensions and climate change impacts, particularly in oil and food markets.
• Geoeconomic fragmentation has led to increased regional disparities in commodity prices, especially in critical minerals, which could pose serious macroeconomic risks and affect the clean energy transition.

2. Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation expectations are still above target in the short term, indicating ongoing disinflation challenges.
• The role of expectations in inflation dynamics is emphasized, with attention to monetary policy influencing firm behavior and policy effectiveness.
• Monetary policy frameworks are critical in managing inflation expectations and ensuring forecast rationality.

3. Commodity Market Fragmentation

• Fragmentation in commodity markets is increasing, affecting price volatility and supply chain stability.
• The economic impacts of fragmentation are significant, with output losses and income disparities in some regions.
• Critical mineral markets are especially vulnerable, with potential impacts on renewable energy and electric vehicle investment by 2030.

Policy Implications

• Policy priorities are shifting from disinflation to sustained growth.
• Monetary and fiscal policies need to be coordinated to address inflation expectations and economic shocks.
• Structural reforms are necessary to diversify growth models, especially in China, which must move away from a credit-driven real estate model.

Data and Methodology

• The projections are based on statistical data up to September 25, 2023.
• Assumptions include constant real effective exchange rates and specific interest rate forecasts for major economies.
• Data conventions include alphabetical or economic size-based ordering, rounding discrepancies, and composite data for country groups.

New Features in This Edition

• Ecuador's fiscal projections are now included.
• Eritrea's data and projections are excluded due to data reporting constraints.
• Sri Lanka's projections are excluded due to sovereign debt restructuring discussions.
• Ukraine's projections are included in line with the baseline scenario.
• West Bank and Gaza projections are pending methodological adjustments.

Additional Notes

• The WEO is a semiannual publication by the IMF staff, with Executive Director input.
• Corrections and revisions are incorporated into digital editions.
• Data and metadata are provided "as is", with timeliness and accuracy emphasized.
• The analysis is supported by data from the WEO database, and maps and charts are available in digital formats.
• Feedback and inquiries can be directed to the IMF's World Economic Studies Division via mail or online forum.

References and Supporting Material

• Boxes and figures provide detailed insights into inflation expectations, commodity market dynamics, and policy impacts.
• Tables include economic indicators, fiscal and financial data, and growth projections.
• Appendices and annexes offer methodological details, assumptions, and country-specific notes.

Conclusion

The global economy is recovering slowly, with growing divergences between regions and economies. The WEO highlights the challenges of disinflation, commodity price shocks, and geopolitical fragmentation, while emphasizing the need for coordinated policy responses and structural reforms to ensure sustained growth and economic stability.