世界经济论坛-首席经济学家展望：2023年9月-英-24页_1mb

报告摘要

Global Economic Outlook: Six out of ten chief经济学家 expect global economic weakness in the coming year due to high uncertainty. Regional growth is patchy: Asia expected to lead, US outlook improved significantly, Europe remains weak but brightening slightly for 2024. Political factors and geopolitical events are key sources of volatility.
Inflation and Monetary Policy: Inflation is moderating globally, with 86% of chief economists expecting past surges to ease within a year. Tighter monetary policy is slowing in inflation-prone economies; policy is less synchronized, with concerns about banking stability and growth risks.
Financial Conditions: Lending conditions are tightening, affecting businesses and households. Corporate debt defaults are rising concerns; financial tightening risks market corrections in property and equities.
Global Development Challenges: Geopolitical tensions and financial tightening hinder progress on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), keeping many targets off track. Private capital could drive progress in areas like digital transformation and climate action if flows increase.
Key Findings: While some optimism exists for economic recovery in certain regions, prolonged uncertainty and risks could sustain global challenges, emphasizing the need for coordinated action on policy and investment.