世界发展银行-Estimates-of-COVID-19-Impacts-on-Learning-and-Earning-in-Indonesia-_-How-to-Turn-the-Tide_33页_1mb

Summary of "Estimates of COVID-19 Impacts on Learning and Earning in Indonesia: How to Turn the Tide"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on learning outcomes and earning potential for Indonesian students in primary and secondary education, using data from the World Bank's Country Tool and the Service Delivery Indicator (SDI) Survey. The authors also outline recommendations for mitigating these impacts through improved education technology and school reopening strategies.

Main Points and Key Findings

1. Impact of School Closures on Learning

• School closures in Indonesia, lasting from March 24 to the end of July 2020, have resulted in significant learning losses.
• PISA reading scores for Indonesian students are estimated to have dropped by 11 points under the Current Scenario.
• The poorest quintile experienced a 4% reduction in PISA reading scores, while the richest quintile saw a 2% reduction.
• The gap between the poorest and richest quintiles in PISA reading scores increased from 57 points to 64 points after four months of closures.
• Learning adjusted years of schooling (LAYS) in Indonesia was 7.9 years pre-COVID, and is expected to drop to 7.5, 7.4, and 7.2 years under Current, Optimistic, and Pessimistic scenarios respectively.
• Grade 4 students are estimated to have lost 0.4 points in literacy and 0.4 points in math, reducing their LAYS from 2.6 to 2.2 in literacy and 1.5 to 1.1 in math.

2. Impact on Future Earnings

• The loss in learning is expected to have long-term implications on earning potential.
• Under the Current Scenario, students are projected to lose US$249 annually in earnings.
• Under the Pessimistic Scenario, the loss is estimated to be US$484 annually, with lifetime earnings losses of US$151 billion (13.5% of 2019 GDP) and US$293 billion (26.2% of 2019 GDP), respectively.

3. Impact on Enrolments

• Income shocks due to the pandemic are expected to increase school dropout rates.
• Under the Optimistic Scenario, the out-of-school children (OOSC) rate is expected to rise by 0.13 percentage points for primary students, and 0.15 percentage points for secondary students.
• This equates to 48,175 additional primary students and 43,031 additional secondary students dropping out.
• Enrolment rates are not consistently affected by gender in Indonesia.

4. Access to Educational Technology

• Distance education mechanisms such as online learning and educational television are being used to mitigate learning loss, but access is uneven.
• Only 10% of households have access to computers, and 5% have internet connectivity.
• 92% of households own a television, and 95% have a mobile phone or smartphone, but only 10% have internet access for online learning.
• Rural and remote areas face greater challenges in accessing digital learning tools.
• Offline learning (primarily through textbooks) is more widely used in remote, rural, or border areas (3T areas), with 21% of teachers using it, compared to 14% in non-3T areas.

5. Teacher Preparedness and Challenges

• Most teachers (97.6%) are implementing distance education, but 2.4% are not due to lack of resources (devices and connectivity).
• 67% of teachers reported difficulty in using digital devices and online learning platforms.
• 30% of teachers noted that students have limited access to supporting devices.
• Limited internet access is a major challenge, affecting 20.4% of teachers, and impedes monitoring student progress.
• Student challenges include limited access to devices (40.5% of teachers), difficulty operating digital platforms (24.5%), and difficulty concentrating (23.3%).

6. School Reopening Considerations

• Schools are reopening in districts with lower infection rates, with higher grades opening before lower grades.
• Only 10% of students have returned to school as of July 2020, due to social distancing requirements.
• Improved face-to-face instruction and distance education quality are essential to recover lost learning and build system resilience.
• School facilities are inadequate for effective distance learning, with only 5% of schools having a working internet connection.
• Teacher training and improved access to technology are critical for the success of distance learning.

Key Recommendations

• Districts, provinces, and central ministries should prepare for improved face-to-face instruction and enhanced distance learning.
• Invest in education technology to ensure equitable access to learning.
• Improve internet connectivity and provide necessary devices to all students.
• Support teacher training to enhance digital instructional capacity.
• Address the disparity in access between urban and rural areas, and between poor and rich households.
• Develop permanent systems that integrate educational technology into the curriculum to replace traditional learning structures effectively.

Conclusion

The pandemic has significantly disrupted learning and earning in Indonesia, with students losing substantial educational and economic opportunities. To turn the tide, policy interventions must focus on improving both the supply and demand sides of education, ensuring equitable access to learning resources, and building system resilience against future shocks. The integration of technology into education and support for teachers and students are key to recovery and long-term educational improvement.