2015年-德勤全球_Risk_Sensing_14页_919kb

Deloitte Risk Sensing Summary

Core Content

Risk sensing is an evolving capability that combines human insights and advanced analytics to identify, analyze, and monitor emerging risks that could impact an organization's business model, long-term viability, and value creation. It involves tracking strategic risk indicators from both internal and external data sources, comparing them with the organization's risk tolerance levels, and using these insights to support strategic decision-making and risk mitigation.

Main Views

• Risk sensing is essential for organizations to stay ahead of disruptions and generate value from risk by anticipating and responding to emerging threats and opportunities.
• Strategic risks are often overlooked despite being of high importance to senior executives.
• The value of external perspectives is recognized but not fully utilized due to cognitive biases and uncertainty about their relevance.
• Technology and human resources must work in tandem to effectively detect and analyze rare events and emerging trends.

Key Information

1. Risk Sensing Capabilities

• Most large organizations have some form of risk sensing, but many lack the technical depth, analytical sophistication, and strategic focus needed to be truly effective.
• Risk sensing is often siloed, with limited integration into broader risk governance and management programs.

2. Types of Risks Monitored

• Financial, compliance, and operational risks are more commonly monitored than strategic risks.
• Strategic risks include those that could undermine strategic objectives, management assumptions, or exceed risk appetite.

3. Importance of Strategic Focus

• Risk sensing should align with the organization's strategic goals and provide insights that support long-term planning and decision-making.
• Risks are often interrelated, so a coordinated approach is necessary to avoid misalignment and ensure effective mitigation.

4. The Role of External Perspectives

• External analysts offer an "outside-in" view that can correct internal cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias and optimism bias.
• These perspectives are particularly valuable in evaluating reputation and innovation risks, which are increasingly important.

5. Technology and Human Resources

• Advanced analytics and technology platforms are crucial for detecting and analyzing trends and anomalies.
• Human analysts, data scientists, and sector experts are needed to interpret data, define workflows, and generate actionable insights.

6. Components of a Risk Sensing Program

• Strategic risk indicators and metrics should be defined and tracked against risk tolerance thresholds.
• The program must be integrated with risk management and governance to ensure relevance and coordination.
• Visualization tools such as dashboards and reports are essential for communicating insights to decision-makers.

7. Steps to Develop a Risk Sensing Program

Step 1: Identify Strategic Risks

• Conduct working sessions with senior leaders and stakeholders to define, validate, and prioritize risks.
• Agree on the scope of the effort, including key sector factors and industry disruptors.

Step 2: Define Elements for Risk Monitoring

• Identify appropriate resources (human and technical) to analyze the key risks.
• Establish data sources and workflows, and define outputs and their intended use.

Step 3: Configure the Platform

• Set up a platform that integrates automated and human analysis.
• Review reports with sector specialists and refine insights based on external trends and data.

Step 4: Continuously Monitor and Refine

• Generate ongoing insights and connect them with strategic and operational decisions.
• Improve dashboards, reports, and models, and ensure they are tightly governed and regularly validated.

8. Expertise Required

• Specialists: Experts in advanced analytics and risk modeling.
• Platform sector analysts: Analysts who combine sector knowledge with data to define workflows.
• Dedicated data analysts: Individuals who use the platform to refine reports and insights.

Conclusion

Risk sensing is not just a tool for risk avoidance but a strategic capability that can drive risk-powered performance. To be effective, it must be robust, integrated, and forward-looking, incorporating both technological and human resources. The ability to detect anomalies, understand interrelated risks, and use external perspectives will determine the success and sustainability of risk sensing programs in the evolving business landscape.