1998年-世界发展银行全球_Trade_and_the_East_Asian_Crisis_4页_447kb

Trade and the East Asian Crisis Summary

Core Content

The East Asian crisis was significantly influenced by trade shocks, which were both cyclical and structural in nature. The region's export-oriented economies experienced a slowdown in export growth, particularly in 1996, which was exacerbated by a sharp depreciation of the yen against the dollar and a decline in intraregional trade. These factors contributed to a decline in competitiveness and worsened the economic situation.

Main Points

• Trade Shocks and Crisis: Trade shocks played a key role in the East Asian crisis. The slowdown in global export growth, combined with changes in regional trade patterns, had a significant negative impact on the region's economies.
• Export Growth Trends: From 1990 to 1996, the region's share in global exports of manufactures increased from 12% to 17%. Countries like Malaysia and the Philippines saw substantial growth in their export shares.
• Impact of Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: There was an inverse relationship between the yen-dollar exchange rate and export growth in ASEAN and Korea. Korea's exports were more affected by changes in the exchange rate than other countries.
• Structural Changes: Structural issues such as overinvestment, excess capacity, and a decline in the terms of trade affected some economies, notably Korea, which experienced a 27% drop in terms of trade over three years.
• New Competition: While East Asian economies have not lost market share globally, they have faced increased competition from new suppliers, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe.
• Intraregional Trade: Intraregional trade accounted for 40% of East Asia's exports in 1996, up from 32% in 1990. This trade is largely complementary and includes raw materials and intermediates, making it more resilient to domestic demand shocks.
• Policy Implications: Trade policies in East Asian countries are often distorted by high tariffs and nontariff barriers. Devaluations have improved competitiveness, creating opportunities for trade liberalization. However, supportive macroeconomic and structural policies are needed to sustain growth and avoid inflation.
• Export Growth and Economic Recovery: Export growth is expected to be a major driver of short-term economic expansion in the region. Devaluations have led to real depreciation, increasing the competitiveness of tradable goods and improving the trade balance.
• OECD Market Reactions: Rising net exports from East Asia may create adjustment pressures in OECD markets, potentially leading to protectionist measures. OECD governments must avoid such actions to prevent harming their own export industries and hindering East Asia's recovery.

Key Information

• Export Growth Data (1990–1996):

  • Developing East Asia: 12% to 17%
  • China: 1.9% to 3.5%
  • Malaysia: 0.7% to 1.6%
  • Philippines: 0.2% to 0.5%
  • Korea: 2.6% to 3.1%
  • Japan: 11.9% to 10.9%
  • United States: 12.3% to 12.9%

• Export Growth in 1995–1997 (Percentage Change):

  • Developing East Asia: 21.6% (1995), 4.5% (1996), 8.2% (1997)
  • Japan: 12.1% (1995), -7.2% (1996), 6.3% (1997)
  • World: 20.0% (1995), 4.0% (1996), 4.0% (1997)

• Real Exchange Rate and Export Volume:

  • Korea: Real depreciation (-1.0%) led to significant export growth (26.8%)
  • Indonesia: Real appreciation (5.8%) did not deter export growth (16.0%)
  • Hong Kong: Real appreciation (10.6%) correlated with a drop in export volume (4.4%)
  • Malaysia: Real appreciation (6.1%) partially explained the decline in export volume (-5.5%)

• Export Share Correlations (1996):

  • Correlations in the world market and EU market suggest varying levels of competition and specialization among East Asian economies. For example, Korea and Japan have high correlations (0.92), while China and Hong Kong have high correlations in the EU market (0.91).
  • Correlations for some countries are relatively low, indicating different endowments and specialization patterns.

Conclusion

The East Asian crisis was influenced by trade shocks, structural changes, and new competition. To recover, the region needs supportive trade, structural, and macroeconomic policies. Devaluations have improved competitiveness, but must be accompanied by measures to prevent inflation and promote long-term growth through investment in education and skills. OECD countries must also avoid protectionist responses to rising East Asian exports to ensure a stable global trade environment.