eia-钻井生产力报告-2018.10-11页

U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report - October 2018

Core Content

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the Drilling Productivity Report for October 2018, which provides an analysis of drilling productivity and production changes in seven key tight oil and shale gas regions. The report uses drilling rig data and production estimates from new and legacy wells to forecast changes in oil and natural gas output through September 2018, based on data up to July.

The report includes the following key components:

• New-well production per rig: This represents the average contribution of a single rig to production from new wells in the region.
• Legacy production change: This reflects the change in production from existing wells, influenced by depletion rates and other factors.
• Indicated monthly change in production: This is the estimated change in total production (both new and legacy wells) from one month to the next.
• Monthly additions from one average rig: This is an estimate of the monthly production increase from a single rig, lagged by two months.

Key Regions and Their Data

Anadarko Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +1,538 barrels/day (November)
• New-well gas production per rig: +1,984 thousand cubic feet/day (November)
• Legacy oil production change: +7,000 barrels/day (month-over-month)
• Legacy gas production change: +210 thousand cubic feet/day (month-over-month)
• Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct): +7,000 barrels/day
• Indicated change in gas production (Nov vs. Oct): +210 thousand cubic feet/day

Appalachia Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +1,193 barrels/day (November)
• New-well gas production per rig: +4,443 thousand cubic feet/day (November)
• Legacy oil production change: +4,000 barrels/day (month-over-month)
• Legacy gas production change: +12 thousand cubic feet/day (month-over-month)
• Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct): +4,000 barrels/day
• Indicated change in gas production (Nov vs. Oct): +12 thousand cubic feet/day

Bakken Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +26 barrels/day (November)
• New-well gas production per rig: +8,715 thousand cubic feet/day (November)
• Legacy oil production change: +0 barrels/day (month-over-month)
• Legacy gas production change: +54 thousand cubic feet/day (month-over-month)
• Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct): +0 barrels/day
• Indicated change in gas production (Nov vs. Oct): +54 thousand cubic feet/day

Eagle Ford Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +26 barrels/day (November)
• New-well gas production per rig: +8,661 thousand cubic feet/day (November)
• Legacy oil production change: +0 barrels/day (month-over-month)
• Legacy gas production change: +115 million cubic feet/day (month-over-month)
• Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct): +0 barrels/day
• Indicated change in gas production (Nov vs. Oct): +115 million cubic feet/day

Haynesville Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +1,193 barrels/day (November)
• New-well gas production per rig: +4,431 thousand cubic feet/day (November)
• Legacy oil production change: +2,000 barrels/day (month-over-month)
• Legacy gas production change: +101 million cubic feet/day (month-over-month)
• Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct): +2,000 barrels/day
• Indicated change in gas production (Nov vs. Oct): +101 million cubic feet/day

Niobrara Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +595 barrels/day (November)
• New-well gas production per rig: +1,230 thousand cubic feet/day (November)
• Legacy oil production change: +43 barrels/day (month-over-month)
• Legacy gas production change: +50 million cubic feet/day (month-over-month)
• Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct): +43 barrels/day
• Indicated change in gas production (Nov vs. Oct): +50 million cubic feet/day

Permian Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +552 barrels/day (November)
• New-well gas production per rig: +1,230 thousand cubic feet/day (November)
• Legacy oil production change: +0 barrels/day (month-over-month)
• Legacy gas production change: +243 million cubic feet/day (month-over-month)
• Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct): +0 barrels/day
• Indicated change in gas production (Nov vs. Oct): +243 million cubic feet/day

Main Points

• EIA's Methodology:

  • Combines data on the number of active rigs with estimates of drilling productivity.
  • Does not differentiate between oil-directed and gas-directed rigs as wells may produce both.
  • Uses Baker Hughes data for rig and well counts.
  • Estimates new-well production by dividing total production from new wells over several months by the rig count, lagged by two months.

• Production Trends:

  • Oil production in most regions increased slightly or remained stable month-over-month.
  • Gas production showed more significant increases in several regions.
  • Legacy production changes are influenced by depletion rates, but can also be affected by external events like well freeze-offs or hurricanes.

• Projected Production:

  • The report provides projections of monthly production changes by combining new-well and legacy production data.
  • It does not account for external factors such as infrastructure issues, weather, or environmental/economic shut-ins.

Key Information

• Sources:

  • Drilling Info for real-time rig location and production data.
  • Baker Hughes for rig and well counts.
  • State-level agencies (e.g., North Dakota Oil and Gas Division, Railroad Commission of Texas, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, etc.) for production, permit, and completion data.

• Footnotes:

  • Oil production includes both crude and condensate from all formations, not just tight ones.
  • Gas production includes all formations, not just shale.
  • Rig counts are based on Baker Hughes weekly data.
  • A new well is defined as one that began production in the previous month.
  • Rig count data lags production data by two months due to the time it takes for rigs to impact production.

Conclusion

The report highlights the drilling productivity and production trends in key U.S. regions, providing insights into the monthly changes in both oil and natural gas output. While most regions showed a slight increase in production, the gas production saw more notable growth. The EIA emphasizes that their estimates are based on historical data and do not include external factors that may influence actual production levels.