eia-美国钻井生产力报告（石油）（英文）-2018.9-11页

U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report Summary (September 2018)

Core Content

The Drilling Productivity Report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides an analysis of oil and natural gas production changes in seven key regions based on drilling rig data and productivity estimates. The report highlights the monthly additions from an average rig, the legacy production changes, and the projected changes in production, combining both new-well and legacy well data.

Key Regions Analyzed

The report includes the following regions:

• Anadarko Region
• Bakken Region
• Eagle Ford Region
• Haynesville Region
• Niobrara Region
• Permian Region
• Appalachia Region

Each region's data includes:

• New-well oil and gas production per rig
• Legacy oil and gas production change
• Indicated monthly change in production (October vs. September)
• Monthly additions from one average rig

Main Points

1. Monthly Additions from One Average Rig

• Definition: Represents the estimated contribution of a single rig to new-well production.
• Method: Calculated using historical production data from new wells, divided by the region's monthly rig count, lagged by two months.
• Purpose: To estimate the rate of production increase from new wells.

2. New-well Oil and Gas Production per Rig

• Data Source: Real-time rig location data from Baker Hughes.
• Trend: Reflects the productivity of new wells in each region.
• Example Data:
  • Anadarko Region: New-well oil production per rig increased by +3,000 barrels/day month-over-month.
  • Bakken Region: New-well oil production per rig increased by +1,000 barrels/day.
  • Permian Region: New-well oil production per rig increased by +31,000 barrels/day.

3. Legacy Oil and Natural Gas Production Change

• Definition: Changes in production from existing wells (not new wells).
• Factors: Influenced by well depletion rates, but can also be affected by external circumstances like well freeze-offs or natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes).
• Example Data:
  • Anadarko Region: Legacy oil production increased by +4,000 barrels/day.
  • Haynesville Region: Legacy gas production increased by +134 million cubic feet/day.
  • Permian Region: Legacy gas production increased by +239 million cubic feet/day.

4. Indicated Monthly Change in Production

• Definition: The combined effect of new-well production and legacy production changes.
• Purpose: To estimate the net change in production for the region.
• Example Data:
  • Anadarko Region: Oil production increased by +8,000 barrels/day.
  • Appalachia Region: Oil production increased by +4,000 barrels/day.
  • Permian Region: Oil production increased by +3,000 barrels/day, and gas production increased by +239 million cubic feet/day.

5. Production Trends (October vs. September)

• Oil Production:
  • Anadarko: +8,000 barrels/day
  • Appalachia: +4,000 barrels/day
  • Permian: +3,000 barrels/day
• Gas Production:
  • Anadarko: +151 million cubic feet/day
  • Haynesville: +16 million cubic feet/day
  • Permian: +239 million cubic feet/day

Key Information

• Data Sources:

  • Drilling Info: Provides real-time rig location data.
  • Baker Hughes: Supplies rig and well counts by county, state, and basin.
  • State agencies (e.g., North Dakota Oil and Gas Division, Railroad Commission of Texas, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, etc.): Supply well production, permit, and completion data for the respective regions.

• Methodology:

  • EIA does not differentiate between oil-directed and gas-directed rigs since wells can produce both after completion.
  • New-well production is based on historical data, while legacy production is based on well depletion rates.
  • The monthly rig count is derived from weekly data reported by Baker Hughes.

• Limitations:

  • The estimated changes do not account for external factors such as infrastructure constraints, bad weather, or shut-ins due to environmental or economic issues.
  • Reworked and recompleted wells are excluded from the new-well category.

Conclusion

The report offers a comprehensive view of oil and natural gas production dynamics in the U.S., emphasizing the growth in new-well productivity and the impact of legacy wells on overall output. It serves as a tool for understanding the current and projected trends in production, which are essential for energy sector planning and policy-making.