20181106-中国银河国际证券-TMT_INDUSTRY_UPDATE–From_a_technical_analysis_perspective_6页_608kb

报告摘要

TMT Industry Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides a technical analysis update on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) industry, focusing on the performance and market sentiment of various companies in the sector. The analysis includes both hardware and non-hardware sub-segments and highlights key indicators such as RSI, MFI, VDX, Bollinger Bands, and others. The overall market sentiment is described as weak, with no clear direction on macroeconomic issues, which has led to market corrections following a recent rebound.

Main Points

Market Sentiment

The TMT sector experienced a correction in share prices after a significant rebound last week.
Market sentiment remains weak and is heavily influenced by news flow.
There is a notable pick-up in trading momentum for TMT non-hardware names, with money inflow observed.

Non-Hardware Sub-Segment

The focus for most internet companies is on toB-related business, such as cloud and SaaS.
These areas are at an early stage of development and have significant growth potential.
Development strategies like "migrating to cloud" are supported by the Chinese government.
Companies expected to outperform include Kingdee [0268.HK], Inspur [0596.HK], and HC Group [2280.HK].
Tencent [0700.HK] is under close market watch for its Q3 2018 results, which may influence its outlook.

Hardware Sub-Segment

There is a preference for telecom equipment names, particularly overseas companies such as II-VI, Lumentum, Acacia Communications, and NeoPhotonics, which generated positive news flow.
ZTE [0763.HK] shows strong sentiment despite a recent correction.
FIT Hon Teng [6088.HK] is holding up despite Apple's weaker guidance.
ASMC [3355.HK] is considered interesting due to the likelihood of the deal not being called off.
TFT-LCD names, especially Skyworth [0751.HK], have shown a recovery in trading momentum after a sharp correction.
Skyworth is expected to attract market attention with its results announcement later this month.

Key Information

Technical Indicators

The following technical indicators were used for analysis:

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Indicates overbought or oversold conditions.
MFI (Money Flow Index): Measures buying and selling pressure.
VDX (Volume-Price Trend): Reflects price and volume trends.
Bollinger Bands: Show volatility and potential price ranges.
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Highlights trend direction.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Smooths price data to identify trends.
P/SMA (Price to Simple Moving Average Ratio): Indicates overbought or oversold conditions.
Sharpe Ratio: Measures risk-adjusted return.
Sortino Ratio: Evaluates risk-adjusted return focusing on downside risk.
Zweig 4%: A momentum indicator.
DSA (Dividend Yield to Share Price): Measures dividend yield relative to the stock price.
P/52-Week Low: Indicates how much the stock has risen from its 52-week low.
ADX (Average Directional Index): Measures trend strength.
MFI (Money Flow Index): Repeatedly mentioned for assessing money flow.

Performance Summary

Company	Ticker	Price P	SMA	MACD	EMA	Bolli-UP	Bolli-DN	P/SMA	Sharpe	100-RSI	%K	%D	Sortino	Zweig 4%	DSA	P/52-Week Low	ADX	MFI
HSI	*HSI	25,934.39	25,562.28	-537.86	22,447.82	26,580.32	24,443.20	1.015	-0.09	45	71	75	0.71	5.49%	0.01	120.2%	-	-
Kingdee	0268.HK	7.14	6.89	-0.46	3.13	7.72	5.96	1.037	0.04	34	78	83	2.03	20.40%	0.04	256.8%	-	-
Inspur	0596.HK	3.30	3.16	-0.05	1.62	3.34	2.97	1.043	0.04	43	89	88	2.47	8.20%	0.03	208.9%	-	-
Sunny Optical	2382.HK	78.50	76.09	-5.75	39.77	88.85	62.76	1.032	0.04	58	68	62	1.74	23.62%	0.04	239.3%	-	-
AAC Tech	2018.HK	62.15	66.21	-5.31	68.71	77.57	53.64	0.939	-0.03	42	55	69	0.20	10.59%	0.04	110.6%	-	-
ZTE	0763.HK	13.38	12.11	-0.37	11.48	13.51	10.65	1.105	0.01	36	78	82	0.92	19.25%	0.04	135.8%	-	-
Skyworth	0751.HK	2.04	1.96	-0.13	4.81	2.19	1.71	1.040	-0.13	50	75	50	3.95	0.00%	0.04	393.9%	-	-

Key Figures and Analysis

Tencent [0700.HK]: Trading momentum remains positive, with a 14-day RSI of 35, and is expected to continue performing well in the short term.
Skyworth [0751.HK]: Exhibited a good pick-up in trading momentum after a sharp correction, with a P/52-Week Low of 393.9%.
Kingdee [0268.HK]: Positive momentum indicators and is expected to outperform.
Inspur [0596.HK]: Shows strong momentum and is expected to outperform.
ASMC [3355.HK]: Considered interesting due to the likelihood of the deal not being called off.
ZTE [0763.HK]: Strong sentiment despite a correction, with a P/52-Week Low of 135.8%.

Disclaimer and Disclosures

The report is not intended for distribution to individuals in jurisdictions where it would be illegal.
The report is issued by Galaxy International Securities and is based on information believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made.
The report is not an offer to buy or sell securities and past performance is not indicative of future results.
The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect his personal views and not necessarily those of the company.
The analyst has no financial interest in the companies mentioned and has not traded in the securities covered in the report in the past 30 days.
The company may have financial interests in the companies mentioned, with holdings potentially equal to or exceeding 1% of the market capitalization.
The company may be involved in financing transactions, providing services, or holding positions in the mentioned companies.

Equity Ratings

BUY: Indicates the share price is expected to increase by more than 20% within 12 months.
SELL: Indicates the share price is expected to decrease by more than 20% within 12 months.
HOLD: Indicates no clear catalyst and the rating is pending further signals.

Copyright

No part of this material may be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited.

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