20181212-招商证券_香港_-药明生物-02269.HK-The_tough_get_going,_no_matter_what_7页_1mb
报告摘要
Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) Summary
Core Content
Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) is a leading company in the biologics outsourcing services market, positioned to benefit from the growing innovation in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry. The company has been a key player in the upcoming bispecific antibody boom, having launched its WuxiBody platform in 3Q18. Despite recent concerns over US-China biotech IP and export regulations, the company has maintained its operations and the sell-off appears to be overreacted to these concerns. The management has confirmed compliance with US regulations and has identified dual sourcing vendors to mitigate any potential risks.
Main Points
- Market Position: Wuxi Biologics is a leading platform in the bispecific antibody development space.
- Recent Developments: The company has signed agreements with multiple biotech firms, including OBT, for bispecific molecule development, with a USD450 million milestone.
- Regulatory Concerns: While there are concerns over the US-China biotech IP and export issues, the company has shown it is compliant and has diversified its supply chain.
- Financial Performance: The company has shown consistent revenue growth and improved profitability over the past few years.
- Investment Outlook: The analysts reiterate their BUY rating and set a 12-month target price of HK$100.4, indicating a potential upside of 101%.
Key Financial Highlights
| Metric | 2016 | 2017 | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated Revenue (RMB mn) | 989 | 1,619 | 2,542 | 4,019 | 6,499 |
| % YoY Change | 78% | 64% | 57% | 58% | 62% |
| Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | 221 | 408 | 655 | 1,196 | 1,936 |
| % YoY Change | 209% | 85% | 60% | 83% | 62% |
| EPS Fully Diluted (HKD) | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.59 | 1.01 | 1.62 |
| PER Adj (x) | n.a. | 118.8 | 84.6 | 49.6 | 30.8 |
| PBR (x) | n.a. | 13.2 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 5.4 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | n.a. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Financial Ratios
| Ratio | 2016 | 2017 | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (%) | 78% | 64% | 57% | 58% | 62% |
| Gross Profit Growth (%) | 115% | 70% | 49% | 56% | 80% |
| Adjusted Net Profit Growth (%) | 209% | 85% | 60% | 83% | 62% |
| Gross Margin (%) | 39.3% | 40.8% | 38.6% | 38.2% | 42.4% |
| Adjusted Net Profit Margin (%) | 22.3% | 25.2% | 25.7% | 29.8% | 29.8% |
| ROE (year end) (%) | 105.9% | 19.0% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 19.2% |
| ROA (%) | 13.2% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 16.4% |
Investment Case
- Reiterated BUY Case: The company is viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to its leadership in the bispecific antibody market and robust financial performance.
- Target Price: HK$100.4, with a potential upside of 101%.
- Valuation: Currently trading at $50x / 30x 2019/20 PER, which is below 1x PEG, indicating an attractive entry point.
- Market Outlook: The analysts believe that the trade dispute could lead to further market liberalization and better IP protection in China, which could benefit Wuxi Bio in the long term.
Recent Deals
- WuxiBody Platform: Launched in 3Q18, leading to significant interest from biotech firms.
- Collaborations:
- 27 Sep 2018: F-Mab
- 28 Nov 2018: ABL Bio
- 8 Dec 2018: Brii
- 11 Dec 2018: OBT (USD450 million milestone)
- Other Collaborations:
- 21 Nov 2018: Zymeworks with Beigene
- 27 Nov 2018: MacroGenics with Zai Lab
Market Context
- Sector: Pharmaceutical & Healthcare
- Market Cap (HK$ mn): 61,161
- Avg. Daily Volume (mn): 5.69
- BVPS (HK$): 6.14
- Shareholding Structure:
- Wuxi Biologics Holding: 59.6%
- Management: 8.0%
- Free Float: 32.4%
Peer Comparison
| Company | P/E Ratio (17A) | P/E Ratio (18E) | P/E Ratio (19E) | P/B Ratio (17A) | P/B Ratio (18E) | P/B Ratio (19E) | P/Sales Ratio (17A) | P/Sales Ratio (18E) | P/Sales Ratio (19E) | Div Yield (18E) | ROE (17A) | ROE (18E) | ROE (19E) | PEG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuxi Bio (2269 HK) | 118.5 | 84.6 | 49.6 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 30.8 | 19.6 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 0.6 |
Analysts and Contact Information
- Su Zhang: +852 3189 6357, suzhang@cmschina.com.hk
- Hayden Zhang: +852 3189 6354, haydenzhang@cmschina.com.hk
- Sam Hu, PhD: +852 3189 6126, samhu@cmschina.com.hk
- Marcella Cheung, PhD: +852 3189 6160, marcellacheung@cmschina.com.hk
Regulatory and Disclosure Information
- Analyst Disclosure: The analysts certify that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect their personal views and that their compensation is not tied to the recommendations.
- Regulatory Disclosure: Please refer to the important disclosures on the website http://www.newone.com.hk/cmshk/en/disclosure.html or http://www.cmschina.com.hk/Research/Disclosure.
- Disclaimer: This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information and opinions are based on sources believed to be reliable, but CMS HK does not guarantee their accuracy. The content may change without prior notice.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
