全球太阳能发电市场展望2021_2025（英）-136页_15mb

2021-2025 Global Market Outlook for Solar Power

Core Content

The Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2021-2025 provides a comprehensive analysis of the solar power industry's growth trajectory, emphasizing its resilience and continued expansion despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The report highlights the increasing cost competitiveness of solar power, its diverse applications, and the role of policy frameworks in enabling its growth.

Main Points

• Solar Growth in 2020:
  Despite the global pandemic, 2020 saw a record 138.2 GW of solar installed, marking an 18% increase from 2019. This brings the global cumulative solar capacity to 773.2 GW, a 22% increase, and highlights solar's dominance in new power installations, with a 39% share of all new energy capacity added that year.

• Cost Competitiveness:
  Solar has become the most cost-competitive power source globally, outperforming fossil fuels and nuclear in unsubsidised cases. The Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) for utility-scale solar dropped by 8% in 2020, and solar + storage is now more cost-effective than gas turbines for peak demand.

• Market Expansion:
  The number of countries with 1 GW or more of solar installed capacity grew from 11 in 2018 to 18 in 2020, and is expected to reach 29 by 2023. China remains the largest market, with 48.2 GW added in 2020, a 60% increase from the previous year. The U.S. also showed strong growth, with 19.2 GW added, and Vietnam emerged as a significant surprise with 11.6 GW installed, nearly doubling its 2019 capacity.

• Off-Grid Solar:
  The report introduces a new section on off-grid solar, highlighting its growing importance for rural electrification and its potential for two-digit annual growth. Off-grid applications span small-scale, C&I (commercial and industrial), and mini-grid systems.

• Tenders and Pricing:
  Solar continues to demonstrate strong competitiveness in power tenders, with record-low bids. Portugal's second solar auction set a global record at 1.32 USD cents/kWh, and Abu Dhabi's 1.5 GW tender achieved 1.35 USD cents/kWh. These low prices are attributed to tender design, policy support, and financial incentives.

• Future Projections:
  The Medium Scenario forecasts continued growth, with global solar installations expected to reach 163.2 GW in 2021, 203 GW in 2022, and 266 GW in 2025. By 2025, the global solar power generation portfolio is projected to reach nearly 1.9 TW, with the potential to exceed 2 TW in the most optimistic case.

• Policy and Support:
  While solar has shown remarkable growth, the report stresses the need for stronger policy support to meet global decarbonisation goals, particularly in the context of the Paris Agreement. The report also calls for improved financial frameworks and incentives to accelerate deployment.

• Methodology:
  SolarPower Europe uses three scenarios (Low, Medium, High) to forecast solar growth. The Medium Scenario is considered the most likely, based on current market conditions and policy trends.

Key Information

• Magnelis® Steel:
  Used for solar mounting structures, it offers a 30+ year expected lifetime in C3 environments. It is also suitable for foundations in soil or concrete, with a 25-year guarantee based on local soil analysis.

• Segmentation:

  • Residential (<10 kW)
  • Commercial (<250 kW)
  • Industrial (<1000 kW)
  • Utility-scale (>1000 kW, ground-mounted)

• Report Structure:

  • Foreword
  • Executive Summary
  • 1. Global Solar Market (Update 2000–2020, Prospects 2021–2025)
  • 2. Off-Grid Solar
  • 3. GW-scale solar markets in 2020
  • 4. Global Market Outlook for Solar Power

• Support and Credits:
  The report is supported by Intersolar Europe and Global Solar Council (GSC). It is published by SolarPower Europe and can be cited as: SolarPower Europe (2021): Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2021–2025.
  ISBN: 9789464073492
  Contact: info@solarpowereurope.org

• Disclaimer:
  The report is for general information only and does not constitute technical, investment, legal, or tax advice. Recipients are advised to consult their own advisors for specific guidance.

Conclusion

The report underscores the pivotal role of solar power in the global energy transition, with its cost leadership, versatility, and rapid deployment capabilities. It also highlights the importance of policy support and the need for continued innovation to meet global climate targets.