全球太阳能发电市场展望2023_2027-148页_19mb

Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2023-2027

Core Content

The Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2023-2027 provides a comprehensive analysis of the solar industry's growth trajectory, focusing on Southeast Asia and corporate PPAs in emerging markets. The report outlines both historical performance and future projections, emphasizing the role of solar in the global energy transition and its resilience amid market challenges.

Main Points

1. Solar Power Growth in 2022

• Global solar capacity added: 239 GW, marking a 45% increase from the previous year and the highest growth rate since 2016.
• Total global solar capacity: Exceeded 1.2 TW by the end of 2022, with a 25% increase from 2021 levels.
• Solar's share in new renewable capacity: 66% of 362 GW of new RES (Renewable Energy Source) capacity, up from 56% in 2021.
• Solar's share of global electricity demand: 4.5%, up from 3.7% in 2021, showing a 22% increase in its share.

2. Cost Competitiveness

• LCOE (Levelised Cost of Electricity): Increased for the first time in over a decade due to supply chain issues, inflation, and the war in Ukraine.
• Solar remains cost-effective: Still significantly cheaper than new fossil fuel and nuclear sources.
• Price trends: Solar product prices have started to decline and are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023.

3. Regional Growth Projections (2023-2027)

• Global installations forecast:
  • 2023: 341 GW (43% growth)
  • 2024: 401 GW
  • 2027: 617 GW
• Total capacity by 2027: Expected to reach 3.5 TW, with solar leading the global energy transition.
• GW-scale markets:
  • 2022: 26 countries
  • 2023: 32 countries
  • 2024: 39 countries
  • 2025: At least 53 countries
• Southeast Asia focus:
  • 2023: Expected to grow to 3.8 GW
  • 2027: Projected to reach 13.3 GW under the Medium Scenario.

4. Key Markets in 2022

• China:
  • Installed 94.7 GW in 2022, a 72% growth from 2021.
  • Dominated the global market, with 400 GW total installed capacity.
  • Rooftop solar contributed 54% of the market share.
• United States:
  • Installed 21.9 GW in 2022, a 6% decrease from 2021.
  • Utility-scale accounted for 63% of total installations, down from 68% in 2021.
  • Rooftop solar grew by 25% to 8.1 GW.
• India:
  • Rebounded in 2022 with 17.4 GW of new capacity, a 23% growth.
  • Surpassed its 2021 record by over 3 GW.
• Brazil:
  • Doubled its installation rate to 10.9 GW.
• Spain:
  • Became the largest European solar market with 8.4 GW.

5. Solar's Role in Energy Transition

• Solar is now widely accepted as a key tool for achieving local energy security and sustainability.
• The EU Solar Strategy (May 2022) positioned solar as the 'kingpin' in reducing EU dependence on Russian gas.
• Solar has addressed the energy trilemma of sustainability, affordability, and supply security.

6. Key Product: Magnelis® Galvanised Steel

• ZM310 (for racks, purlins, tubes): Expected lifetime of over 30 years in C3 environments, certified by multiple independent bodies.
• ZM620 (for posts and columns): Can be used in soil or concrete foundations, with a 25-year guarantee based on local soil analysis.
• Environmental benefits: Available with XCarb® recycled and renewably produced, leading to a 70% CO₂ footprint reduction.

Key Information

• The report is supported by SolarPower Europe, the Global Solar Council (GSC), and GET.invest.
• It includes in-depth features on the 26 GW-scale solar markets in 2022 and focuses on Southeast Asia and corporate PPAs in emerging markets.
• The methodology includes Low, Medium, and High Scenarios, with the Medium Scenario representing the most likely market development.
• SolarAnywhere Data and Solargis Evaluate are highlighted as tools for project development, operations, and financial performance analysis.
• Solargis Time Series data offers 15- or 10-minute resolution, useful for seasonal and probabilistic energy modeling.
• SolarAnywhere Forecast is an enterprise-class API that provides weather-adjusted PV production estimates and site-specific energy simulations.

Conclusion

Solar power is on a fast growth trajectory, driven by cost leadership, geopolitical considerations, and strong policy support. Despite a short-lived LCOE increase, solar remains affordable and attractive for both utility-scale and distributed applications. The 2023-2027 outlook is optimistic, with annual installations projected to exceed 341 GW in 2023 and total capacity surpassing 3.5 TW by 2027. The Southeast Asia market is expected to grow significantly, and corporate PPAs are gaining traction in emerging markets. With improved supply chains and cost reductions, the solar industry is poised for sustained expansion and a central role in the global shift toward renewable energy.