2016年-世界发展银行全球_The_Demand_for_and_Impact_of_Youth_Internships___Evidence_from_a_Randomized_Experiment_in_Yemen_21页_660kb

Summary of "Republic of Yemen Internship Impact Evaluation"

Core Content

This paper presents the results of a randomized experiment evaluating a youth internship program in the Republic of Yemen, focusing on its impact on employment and income. The program, known as the Enterprise Revitalization and Employment Pilot (EREP), was designed to address youth unemployment by providing firms with a 50% subsidy for employing interns for six months, along with a matchmaking service to connect firms with suitable graduates. The program was launched in 2013 and ran for one year (2014), with the second year canceled due to the outbreak of civil conflict in 2015.

Main Findings

• Skill Mismatch: There was a significant mismatch between the supply of interns (heavily concentrated in STEM fields) and the demand from firms (which required more marketing and business graduates).
• Employment Impact:
  • Receiving an internship increased the likelihood of working by 42 percentage points in 2014.
  • It increased the number of months worked by 3.4 months.
  • Earnings increased by 73%.
• Post-Treatment Effects:
  • A follow-up survey showed that internship recipients had better employment outcomes up to five months after the program.
  • The effect on employment was significant at the 1% level when using an aggregated index of standardized z-scores.
• Gender Differences:
  • Female applicants were less likely to work and earn less than male applicants in the control group.
  • The internship program had a greater impact on male applicants, though the statistical power was low, and the program did not close the gender gap in employment.

Key Information

• Program Structure:
  • 400 interns were targeted over two years, with 200 in the first year.
  • Each intern received a 50% subsidy from the program.
  • The program included a basic skills training course and a matchmaking process to connect interns with firms.
• Eligibility:
  • Applicants had to be Yemeni, live in Sanaa or Aden, and have graduated from university or vocational school in the past two years.
• Randomization:
  • 500 applicants were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups.
  • The randomization was conducted within strata defined by specialization and city.
  • 583 individuals formed the experimental sample, with 36.7% receiving an internship.
• Data Sources:
  • Baseline data from applications.
  • Administrative data on internship take-up and completion.
  • A follow-up survey conducted via phone in March 2015, with a 78.7% response rate.
• Challenges:
  • The civil conflict in 2015 led to the cancellation of the second year of the program.
  • The program’s impact may not reflect general equilibrium effects due to limited sample size and possible competition for jobs outside the experimental sample.

Program Context

• Economic Situation: Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the Arab world, with a per-capita GDP of $1,473 (2013), and over half the population living below the poverty line.
• Unemployment: Educated youth face particularly high unemployment rates, with the female wage employment rate in non-agricultural sectors being the lowest in the world.
• Political Instability: The country experienced political turmoil and civil conflict in 2015, which affected the program’s implementation and outcomes.

Methodology

• Randomization:
  • A 1.5:1 ratio of treatment to control was used.
  • The treatment effect was estimated using a regression model that included strata (specialization*city) fixed effects.
• Take-up Rate:
  • 36.7% of the treatment group received an internship.
  • No significant difference in take-up by gender.
• Survey Design:
  • The follow-up survey was conducted 3-6 months after the end of the internship.
  • It captured employment outcomes in December 2014 and February 2015.

Conclusion

The internship program had a positive and significant impact on employment and earnings for participants in Yemen, particularly in the short term. However, the program's effects may not be generalizable due to the limited sample size and the impact of civil conflict on the second year. The results also highlight the persistent gender gap in employment outcomes, suggesting that the program may not be equally effective for all participants. The study contributes to the literature on labor market programs by providing evidence from a fragile and conflict-affected setting, which is less studied than other regions.

Key Highlights

• Oversupply in STEM: Engineering and IT graduates were more available than firms needed.
• Undersupply in Business: Marketing and business graduates were in higher demand but less available.
• Program Effectiveness:
  • Intention-to-Treat (ITT) effects showed significant improvements in employment and income.
  • Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) was even stronger.
• Post-Treatment Persistence:
  • The positive effects of the internship lasted up to five months after the program.
• Gender Gap:
  • Female applicants had worse employment outcomes than males, and the internship had a greater impact on males.

Limitations

• Short Duration: The program only ran for one year, and the second year was canceled.
• Limited Statistical Power: Especially in gender impact analysis.
• Conflict Context: The program was affected by the outbreak of civil conflict, which may have influenced employment outcomes and the program's ability to assess long-term effects.

Conclusion

The internship program in Yemen demonstrated effectiveness in improving employment and income for participating youth, particularly in the short term. However, the results should be interpreted with caution due to the program's limited scope and the impact of conflict. The study underscores the importance of targeted labor market interventions in fragile states and the need for further research to assess long-term impacts and gender-specific outcomes.