战略与国际研究中心-TWQ_-The-2009-Israeli-Election_-A-Bump-in-the-Road-to-Peace__15页_175kb

2009 Israeli Election Summary

Core Content

The 2009 Israeli general election took place in February 2009, marking the fifth election in a decade. It was heavily influenced by the December 2008 Israeli military offensive into the Gaza Strip, which overshadowed other potential issues such as the economic crisis. The election resulted in a shift toward the political right, with the centrist Kadima party and the right-wing Likud party both claiming victory. Kadima secured the most seats, while Likud emerged as the strongest contender for forming a governing coalition.

Main Views and Key Points

• Security Dominates the Agenda: The election was dominated by traditional security concerns, particularly the ongoing rocket fire from Gaza and the political fallout from the 2006 Lebanon War. The Gaza operation in late 2008 further reinforced these security-focused themes.

• Shift to the Right: The election outcome was widely interpreted as a move to the right. The success of Yisrael Beitenu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, was seen as an endorsement of more strident rhetoric and extreme political positions, especially among Russian immigrant voters.

• Kadima's Rise and Challenges: Tzipi Livni, leader of Kadima, emerged as the top vote-getter, but her party faced internal challenges and was criticized for not being a strong enough coalition force. Her coalition-building efforts were hampered by the demands of Shas, which pushed the issue of Jerusalem into the spotlight.

• Likud's Comeback: Despite internal divisions, Likud managed to secure second place with 27 seats, signaling a return to prominence. The party's primary contest highlighted the dominance of hardliners, raising concerns about its ability to form a broad coalition.

• Coalition Formation: The formation of a right-wing coalition was inevitable, with Lieberman playing a key role as a kingmaker. His appointment as foreign minister caused international concern due to his hardline stance and controversial policies.

• U.S.-Israel Relations: The election outcome had implications for U.S.-Israel relations, especially with the Obama administration's focus on peace and its potential conflict with Netanyahu's right-wing coalition. Livni sought to leverage the new administration's interest in peace, while Netanyahu emphasized security and was cautious about aligning too closely with the U.S.

• Political System Criticism: The election highlighted the instability of Israel's political system, with a lack of clear leadership and a fragmented party landscape. The electoral threshold and proportional representation system were criticized for producing a government that lacked cohesion.

Key Information

• Election Context: The election was triggered by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's resignation due to corruption allegations, with Labour leader Ehud Barak playing a key role in his downfall.

• Voting System: Israel uses a pure proportional representation system with a 2% threshold for entering the Knesset. This system contributed to the fragmentation of the political landscape.

• Party Performance:

  • Kadima: Won 28 seats, the most of any party, and was seen as a potential leader of a centrist coalition.
  • Likud: Secured 27 seats, emerging as the strongest right-wing contender.
  • Yisrael Beitenu: Gained 15 seats, becoming a significant force with its strong base among Russian immigrants.
  • Labour: Won 13 seats, a decline from its previous status as the dominant party.
  • Shas: Secured 12 seats, but its demands complicated coalition negotiations.

• International Implications: The rise of Lieberman and the potential for a right-wing government raised concerns about Israel's foreign policy direction, especially regarding the Palestinians and the U.S. relationship.

• Domestic Challenges: The new government faced challenges including the economic crisis, security threats, and the need to maintain a delicate balance with the U.S. and other international actors.

Conclusion

The 2009 Israeli election reflected a complex political landscape shaped by security concerns, internal party struggles, and the broader context of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. While the outcome suggested a move to the right, it was not a definitive shift toward a permanent retreat from the two-state solution. The new government, led by Netanyahu, faced significant domestic and international challenges, and its ability to form a stable coalition and maintain relations with the U.S. remained uncertain.