2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Revenue_Administration–Gap_Analysis_Program_An_Analytical_Framework_for_Excise_Duty_Gap_Estimation_48页_1mb

Summary of The Revenue Administration—Gap Analysis Program: An Analytical Framework for Excise Gap Estimation

Core Content

This document outlines an analytical framework for estimating the excise gap, which is defined as the difference between potential and actual excise revenues. It is part of the IMF Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP) and focuses on top-down methodologies for excise gap estimation. The framework is designed to help tax administrations and stakeholders understand the sources of revenue loss due to noncompliance, avoidance, and policy decisions.

Main Objectives

• To provide a structured approach for measuring the excise gap.
• To identify the components of the excise gap (compliance and policy).
• To highlight the importance of using independent, accurate, and comprehensive data sources.
• To guide the implementation of excise gap analysis through four key stages: context, data capture, analysis, and reporting.

Key Points

1. Excise Gap Definition

• The excise gap is the difference between potential and actual revenue for a given excise.
• It can be broken down into two components:
  • Compliance gap: Loss due to noncompliance or avoidance.
  • Policy gap: Loss due to the application of tax policy, such as exemptions or credits.

2. Why Measure the Excise Gap?

• Provides insight into the effectiveness of tax administration and policy efficiency.
• Helps identify compliance risks and market behaviors affecting revenue.
• Supports strategic decision-making for improving tax systems and reducing revenue losses.

3. Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Approaches

• Top-down approach: Uses independent statistical data to estimate the total potential tax base and compare it with actual collections.
  • Advantages: Comprehensive and efficient.
  • Limitations: Does not account for price effects or behavioral changes.
• Bottom-up approach: Involves auditing or analyzing specific taxpayer behaviors.
  • Advantages: Provides detailed insights into compliance behaviors.
  • Limitations: More costly and limited in scope.

4. Design Criteria for Effective Top-Down Gap Estimation

• Independent source of statistics for the tax base.
• Accurate and detailed statistical data.
• Consistency in data definitions and scales.
• Sufficiently detailed data to model the tax base.
• Comprehensive data covering the full tax base.
• Accurate modeling of the tax structure, using statutory rates and capturing special treatments.

5. Steps in Measuring an Excise Gap

A. Context

• Identifying motivation, feasibility, and scope of the study.
• Motivation includes revenue shortfalls, compliance risk assessments, and market intelligence.
• Feasibility depends on the availability of detailed and independent data sources.
• Scope typically spans multiple years (at least five years) to allow for trend analysis and reliability testing.

B. Data Capture

• Legislation: Establishing the legal framework, including current and historical excise rates and coverage.
• Administration Data: Using detailed taxpayer returns and payments data to calculate actual collections.
• Statistical Data: Collecting independent data on production or consumption, often at a micro-level, to model the tax base.

C. Analysis

• Data Preparation: Cleaning, formatting, and checking for anomalies, duplication, and consistency.
• Model Specification: Matching model parameters to legislative and administrative frameworks, ensuring alignment with data definitions.
• Model Execution: Inputting data into the excise gap model and testing results against external data and assumptions.

D. Reporting

• Presenting the levels and trends of the excise gap.
• Decomposing the gap into policy and compliance components.
• Including caveats about data limitations and uncertainties.
• Providing conclusions and recommendations for future monitoring and analysis.

Key Data Requirements

• Tax administration records: Detailed returns and payments data.
• Statistical data: Independent production or consumption data, preferably at a micro-level.
• Legislative framework: Information on tax rates, coverage, and special treatments.
• Data consistency: Ensuring that data from different sources is consistent in definitions and scale.
• Time-series data: At least five years of data to assess trends and reliability.

Case Study: Slovakia's Mineral Oils Excise Gap Estimate

• The Slovak Institute of Financial Policy (IFP) used the outlined framework to estimate the excise gap for mineral oils.
• Motivation: Long-term decline in excise collections not explained by rate changes.
• Feasibility: Combined data from vehicle registrations, controls, and road tolls used to estimate consumption.
• Scope: Potential excise calculated as domestic consumption multiplied by the appropriate excise rate.

Conclusion

The excise gap is a critical indicator of tax system performance, and its accurate measurement requires a robust analytical framework. While top-down methods are widely used and efficient, they must be based on independent, accurate, and detailed data. The framework outlined in this document is intended to minimize uncertainties and provide a reliable estimate of the excise gap, which can inform policy improvements, compliance strategies, and revenue forecasting.