拼多多沽空报告（中英全文）-Blue_Orca-2018.11_76页_9mb

Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD) Research Summary

Core Content

This research report is authored by short sellers and presents a critical analysis of Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), a Chinese e-commerce company, suggesting that the company has inflated its reported revenues and GMV while understating its net losses and staffing costs. The report is intended to highlight potential misrepresentations in PDD's financial disclosures and serves as a cautionary note for investors.

Main Points

• PDD's Financial Misrepresentation: The report claims that PDD's reported revenues and GMV are significantly overstated, with SAIC filings indicating a 36-40% reduction in revenue and a 65% increase in net losses compared to SEC filings.

• Revenue Recognition Issues: The discrepancy between SAIC and SEC filings is attributed to aggressive revenue recognition practices. The report argues that PDD may be misrepresenting its financial performance by not adhering to standard accounting practices.

• GMV Overstatement: Multiple data points indicate that PDD's GMV is inflated. The report suggests that GMV is overestimated by 34-47%, based on payment processing costs, commission fee revenues, and the merchant cash cycle.

• Valuation Concerns: The report calculates that PDD's stock price is significantly overvalued when compared to its actual financial performance. Using a price-to-sales multiple similar to Alibaba, PDD's shares are valued at $7.10, a 59% downside from its current price. On a price-to-adjusted GMV basis, the valuation is $8.05, a 53.1% downside.

• Corporate Structure and Related Parties: PDD operates through two VIEs, and the report suggests that an undisclosed related party may be bearing some of the staffing costs, further indicating potential misrepresentation in financial reporting.

• Investor Caution: The report warns that PDD's financial disclosures may be misleading and that investors should not rely on them without further due diligence. It emphasizes the importance of seeking independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making investment decisions.

Key Information

Financial Metrics (As of 11/13/18)

• Stock Price: $17.15
• Market Cap: $19 billion
• 65 Day Avg Volume: 6MM shares
• Reported GMV: RMB 207 billion
• Reported Sales (2018E): USD 1,649 million
• Shares Outstanding (2018E): 1,108 million

Valuation Analysis

Adjusted Valuation

• Blue Orca Valuation (P/S): $7.10 (59% downside)
• Blue Orca Valuation (P/GMV): $8.05 (53.1% downside)

Revenue and Loss Discrepancies

• SAIC Filings vs SEC Filings (2017):

  • Revenue: RMB 1.2 billion (SAIC) vs RMB 1.95 billion (SEC) → -36% difference
  • Net Losses: RMB 689 million (SAIC) vs RMB 417 million (SEC) → +65% difference

• GMV Overstatement:

  • Payment Processing Costs: -43%
  • Commission Fee Revenues: -34%
  • Cash Cycle: -47%
  • Average GMV Overstatement: -41%

Conclusion

The report concludes that PDD's financial performance is not as strong or scalable as it claims, and that the company's business model may not be as profitable or sustainable as investors are led to believe. It suggests that PDD is overvalued and that its financial disclosures may be misleading, potentially leading to significant losses for investors. The report encourages investors to conduct their own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions in PDD.