20140904-DBS_Group-Hong_Kong_and_Singapore_NDR_takeaways_-_awaiting_the_fruits_from_internal_reform_12页_336kb

报告摘要

Company Overview: Agile Property is a Chinese property developer focused on real estate holding and development. The report discusses its performance, strategies, and financial outlook as of 4 September 2014.
Valuation and Performance: The report highlights Agile's current valuation and financial metrics, comparing it with other companies in the industry.
Strategic Focus: Agile is focusing on meeting sales targets, ensuring timely delivery, and improving cash collection to enhance its financial position.
Market Outlook and Catalysts: The potential for sales pickup in September and October is noted, along with the company's efforts to improve operational efficiency and reduce debt.

Revenue Trends: Agile's turnover increased from RMB35,436m in 2013 to RMB46,207m in 2014, with an expected increase to RMB56,061m in 2016.
Profitability: Pretax profit and net profit show a decline in 2013 but are expected to improve in 2014 and 2015. EBITDA and core profit are also expected to rise.
Earnings Growth: EPS is projected to increase from RMB0.98 in 2013 to RMB1.15 in 2016, with a significant rise expected in 2014 and 2015.
Valuation Metrics: Agile's P/E ratio is currently at 5.2, with a forecasted decline to 4.5 by 2016. Its P/Book ratio is expected to drop to 0.4 by 2016.

Inventory Management: Inventory levels remained stable, but the average age of inventory decreased. Agile sold RMB4bn of inventory in 1H14, with additional RMB4.5bn added.
Sales and Delivery: Agile is prioritizing sales, delivery, and cash collection. Management believes the market is recovering and sales targets are achievable.
Construction Adjustments: Construction new starts were reduced from 6m sm to 4.3m sm, focusing on smaller units that are likely to sell well.

Net Debt Ratio: The net debt ratio is expected to decrease from mid-70% in 2014 to around 60% in 2016 through inventory clearance, debt control, and improved cash collection.
Refinancing Options: Agile is considering a rights issue or issuing senior notes to refinance its USD475m bridge loan, which is due in Dec 2014.
Perpetual Securities: Agile issued USD700m of perpetual securities in 2013 with favorable terms, and is against domestic project-level perpetual financing due to higher interest rate steps.

Discount to NAV: Agile is trading at a discount to NAV, with a 63.2% discount as of 4 September 2014.
Peer Comparison: Agile's valuation is compared to other major real estate developers, such as China Overseas, Country Garden, and Shimao Property, showing it is more attractively valued.
Investor Focus: Investors are primarily concerned with price cuts, margin impact, debt repayment, and cash collection. Agile's strategies align with these concerns.

Price Target: The 12-month price target for Agile is HK$6.98, with a current price of HK$6.43.
Analysts: The report is authored by Danielle WANG CFA, Carol WU, Andy YEE, and Ken HE CFA.
Major Shareholders: Chan Cheuk Yin holds 63.01% of the shares, with a free float of 36.99%.
Market Cap and Trading Volume: Market cap is HK$22.4bn, with an average daily trading volume of 11.6 million shares.
Sales Outlook: August sales were unexciting, but September and October are expected to be strong due to new projects and promotional activities.

Investment Recommendation: Maintain a BUY rating due to the company's improving execution and the fact that negatives are already priced in.
Future Prospects: Agile aims to deliver sustainable growth and a healthier balance sheet within two to three years.
Market Conditions: Agile is cautious in land acquisition and is focusing on strategic locations and projects with strong potential for sales and profitability.

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