20230613-国金证券-见微知著系列之五十四_今年高温限电会_卷土重来_吗__22页_2mb

High Temperature and Electricity Supply Tightness Analysis

• Summary Overview: Recent high temperatures and reduced precipitation, particularly in Southwest China, have led to increased electricity demand and supply shortages, similar to events in 2013, 2018, and 2022. For example, May through August saw significantly higher temperatures and lower rainfall, causing spikes in electricity usage and deficits up to 299 gigawatt-hours in 2022.

• Past Impacts: Historical electricity shortages during high temperatures often resulted in regional limited electricity, such as in 2022 limiting production in Sichuan, with high-energy industries like non-metallic mineral production affected. Price increases occurred, with PPI rising due to supply constraints, but economic impacts were short-term and localized.

• Current Year Analysis: Electricity constraints are less severe this year due to better hydroelectric support from El Niño-like conditions, higher fire power capacity, and reduced industrial demand compared to previous years. However, low industrial inventory levels (e.g., inventory below average for steel and copper) could heighten price sensitivity if disruptions occur.

• Production and Need Tracking: Data shows varied regional performance, with mixed signals in industries like steel and cement (weak demand but some price improvement). Real estate markets have cooled, and transportation trends indicate mild recovery in some urban activity.

• Risk Assessment: Potential issues include data inaccuracies and unexpected shifts in policy or environmental factors.