GSMA-2021年全球移动趋势报告（英文）-2020.12-68页_6mb

Summary of Global Mobile Trends 2021

Core Content

This document outlines key trends and challenges in the global mobile industry during the year 2021, focusing on the impact of the pandemic, 5G development, network transformation, and the role of IoT and enterprise services in shaping future growth.

Main Points

1. Impact of Covid-19 on the Telecom Sector

• The pandemic significantly affected the telecom sector, though its impact was less severe than on the broader economy.
• Revenue losses were primarily attributed to reduced roaming activity, lower handset upgrades, and business discounts.
• In high-income countries, mobile revenue loss was about half that of GDP, while in developing countries, mobile revenue growth outperformed the economy due to its role as the default internet access method.
• The sector demonstrated resilience, with network performance holding up during the crisis, especially for critical services like healthcare and remote work.

2. 5G Outlook

• 5G network rollouts continued despite the pandemic, with an average of eight new networks launched per month since March 2020.
• By the end of 2020, 113 operators across 48 countries had 5G networks, covering 40% of the global mobile subscriber base.
• The US, China, and South Korea were leading in 5G deployment, while developing markets began entering the 5G era.
• 5G is expected to drive 80% of sector capex over the next five years, aiming for 45% population coverage.
• The rollout of standalone 5G networks is expected to accelerate, with 2021 identified as the tipping point year.

3. Network Transformation

• Network transformation strategies are driven by the need to balance cost savings with revenue generation and customer experience.
• The primary goals of network overhaul include generating new revenues, saving on opex and capex costs, and improving customer experience.
• Open RAN and modular approaches are gaining traction, enabling greater vendor diversity and cost efficiency.
• Private networks are becoming a key revenue stream, offering customisation and control at a higher cost.

4. IoT and Enterprise Verticals

• IoT is expected to grow significantly, with total connections doubling from 2019 to 2025, reaching 24 billion.
• The pandemic disrupted short-term IoT growth, particularly in SME and corporate markets, but long-term potential remains strong.
• Enterprise verticals are seen as the main revenue drivers for 5G, with manufacturing leading the way.
• Operators are increasingly looking to monetise B2B services through slicing, low-latency IoT, and tailored network solutions.

5. The Digital Consumer

• Operators are expanding beyond core connectivity by offering digital services, with services beyond core accounting for an average of 20% of total revenues.
• AT&T and Softbank have seen significant growth through M&A, while Turkcell stands out as a digital telco.
• The shift towards digital services is a key strategy to counteract the effects of commoditisation and drive growth.

6. The Next Billion

• The expansion of mobile services to the next billion users is a major growth opportunity, particularly in emerging markets.
• This growth is supported by the increasing adoption of 4G and the potential for 5G to further enhance connectivity and services.

7. Regional Outlook

• The US leads in 5G investment and capex efficiency, while Asia (especially China) has a lower capex per customer.
• Europe is also advancing in 5G, with a focus on industrial applications and open network technologies.
• Rural broadband remains a challenge, with new entrants using various technologies to improve coverage and affordability.

Key Information

• Covid-19 Impact: Reduced roaming, lower handset upgrades, and business discounts led to a 4-8% revenue drop for operators, though actual service revenues remained stable.
• 5G Growth: Expected to drive 80% of capex over the next five years, with 45% population coverage by 2025.
• Network Transformation: Prioritises cost savings and revenue generation, with open technologies and new suppliers playing a critical role.
• Private Networks: Seen as a revenue opportunity, though they come with trade-offs in cost and service customisation.
• IoT and Enterprise: Expected to be major beneficiaries of 5G, with manufacturing as the top revenue driver.
• Rural Broadband: Remains a challenge, with new technologies and partnerships being explored to improve access and affordability.

Conclusion

The global mobile industry is navigating the aftermath of the pandemic while pushing forward with 5G and network transformation. Despite short-term disruptions, the long-term outlook is positive, driven by the expansion of digital services, enterprise opportunities, and the need for resilient, scalable infrastructure. Regional differences in 5G adoption and investment efficiency highlight the varied paths operators may take in their growth strategies.