BIS国际清算银行-The-recession-mortality-nexus-and-Covid-19_9页_1mb

BIS Bulletin No. 35: The Recession-Mortality Nexus and Covid-19

Core Content

This BIS Bulletin investigates the relationship between economic recessions and mortality, with a specific focus on the impact of the pandemic-induced recession on excess deaths. It presents empirical evidence from historical data spanning 180 countries over six decades and draws comparisons between high-income advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).

Key Takeaways

• Countries with stronger predicted GDP declines in 2020 have also seen higher excess deaths after accounting for official Covid-19 fatalities.
• Historical data show a systematic link between recessions and higher mortality, especially in developing economies.
• Excess mortality rates remain elevated for several years following a recession in EMDEs.
• The mortality impact of recessions is more pronounced in EMDEs than in AEs, particularly for child mortality.
• The death toll from Covid-19 may be underestimated if the effects of the pandemic-induced recession on mortality are ignored.
• Limiting the economic fallout of the pandemic could also reduce excess mortality.

Main Findings

Economic Downturns and Mortality

• Cyclical fluctuations in output and mortality rates are negatively correlated over time, indicating that mortality tends to rise during economic downturns.
• In EMDEs, mortality rates increase significantly during recessions, with an average rise of 3.5 deaths per 1,000 people in deep recessions and less than 2.5 deaths per 1,000 people in mild recessions.
• Child mortality rates are even more sensitive to recessions, increasing by 35 per 1,000 live births in deep recessions in EMDEs, compared to around 8 per 1,000 live births in mild recessions.
• In AEs, there is no significant difference in mortality rates between recession and non-recession years, and child mortality rates may even slightly decrease during recessions.

Long-Term Effects of Recessions

• Mortality rates in EMDEs remain elevated for several years after a recession begins.
• Mortality rates increase for four years on average, and child mortality rates may remain elevated for up to six years.
• In AEs, mortality rates tend to decline or remain stable in the years following a recession.

Key Mechanisms

• Lower incomes during recessions can lead to malnutrition, stress-related health issues, and increased suicide rates.
• Economic downturns can reduce public spending on health and social security, negatively affecting public health.
• In poorer countries, these direct effects are more severe due to underdeveloped healthcare systems and limited financial buffers.
• In richer countries, indirect effects of recessions (e.g., reduced accidents, pollution, and healthier lifestyles) may mitigate the negative health impacts.

Implications for Public Policy

• The death toll from the pandemic may be higher than official figures suggest, due to the indirect effects of the economic downturn.
• Pandemic response policies must consider the trade-off between saving lives and reducing economic damage.
• Early and effective virus containment can help limit both mortality and economic impact, potentially avoiding the need for harsh lockdowns.
• Recessions in AEs can spill over to EMDEs, affecting mortality rates in poorer countries even if they are not directly impacted by the pandemic.

Conclusion

The analysis suggests that the coronavirus recession has likely contributed to excess mortality, particularly in EMDEs, and that the mortality impact of recessions is more severe than that of the pandemic itself in these economies. The findings highlight the importance of addressing both the health and economic consequences of the pandemic to fully understand its long-term impact.

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