英文_高盛_中国医疗保健_2025年5月中国医院设备招标情况_同比持续增长_而带量采购影响超声价格_17页_916kb

China Healthcare Equipment Bidding Update

China's hospital equipment bidding in May 2025 showed strong year-over-year (YoY) growth of +91%, marking a +86% increase compared to May 2023. The month-over-month (MoM) growth declined by -13% due to timing effects from the Labor Day holiday and 2024's low base from trade-in program delays. Excluding VBP impacts, overall procurement recovered, with various devices showing positive trends.

Volume-Based Pricing (VBP) significantly pressured ultrasound prices, with average bid cuts of 61% in Henan province, leading to a ~20% YoY price decrease. This affects companies like Mindray, estimated to face ~3% revenue pressure, but no significant price declines are noted for CT scanners. Other devices, such as patient monitors, endoscopes, and ultrasound, maintained positive YoY growth rates in May, though MoM comparisons vary.

Domestic companies United Imaging and Mindray are favored for their growth prospects, driven by healthcare infrastructure expansion and substitution trends. United Imaging's China revenue is expected to grow +10%, +40%, and +36.5% in 2Q24, 3Q25, and 4Q25, with rising market share. Mindray maintains its market leader position, with inventory and channel stock destocking expected to normalize by 2Q25E, supporting revenue.

Both companies are Buy-rated, with price targets of Rmb300 and Rmb173, respectively. Catalysts include procurement recovery, trade-in program progress, new product launches, and overall market confidence.