2025-06-10-Bernstein-美国医疗保健服务_快速解读_白宫发布关于医院补充付款的备忘录_10页_311kb

• Date: 10 June 2025
• Topic: U.S. Healthcare Services – Quick Take on White House Memo

White House Memo on Medicaid

• The White House issued a memo titled "Eliminating Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Medicaid," arguing that states and providers are exploiting the system via provider taxes and Supplemental Directed Payments (SDPs).
• SDPs have quadrupled over the last 4 years to ~$110B, and President Trump is directing the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to cap Medicaid payment rates at Medicare levels.
• Provisions in the reconciliation bill restrict new SDPs; expansion states cannot exceed Medicare rates, and non-expansion states cannot exceed 110% of Medicare rates. Existing SDPs (including grandfathered ones) may be subject to annual CMS reviews and potential decoupling from Medicare levels.

Key Implications

• This effort aims to save money but risks reducing hospital reimbursements, as noted by Bernstein. The provider tax/SDP approach faces federal scrutiny and is unlikely to expand long-term.
• Bernstein predicts modestly negative effects for hospital businesses, citing initial stock declines in HCA and THC, potentially due to the memo's impact.

Investment Takeaways

• Stock Ratings: Based on Bernstein analysis:
  • CNC Outperform (Target: $86), HCA Market-Perform (Target: $378), ELV Outperform (Target: $585), HUM Outperform (Target: $313), UNH Outperform (Target: $377).
  • Stocks like HCA and THC experienced modest declines, possibly tied to the policy changes.
    Ticker Summary:

    Ticker	Rating	Target Price
    CNC	Outperform	$86
    HCA	Market-Perform	$378
    ELV	Outperform	$585
    HUM	Outperform	$313
    UNH	Outperform	$377

• Purchase Details: HCA and THC declined on Monday, aligning with potential concerns over Medicaid changes. For the full valuation, refer to the report's tables.

Broader Analysis

• Bernstein views Medicaid savings efforts as a headwind for hospital net payments, potentially limiting business growth. Sustainability of the SDP approach is questioned due to federal oversight increases.

Disclosures Note: This summary is based on the full report and may not negate accompanying legal disclosures or analysis.