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报告摘要

Kampala Property Market Performance Review - H1 2025

Core Content Summary

Kampala's property market in H1 2025 reflects a mix of challenges and opportunities across different sectors. The overall economic environment shows moderate growth, controlled inflation, and a stable shilling, which has had a positive impact on the real estate landscape.

Economic Context

Economic Growth: Uganda's economy expanded by 6.3% in FY 2024/25, driven by the services sector and improved trade dynamics.
Inflation: Headline inflation rose to 3.9% by June 2025, with core inflation remaining elevated at 4.2%. Food and energy prices were the main contributors to the inflationary trend.
Monetary Policy: The Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained at 9.75% since October 2024, with the Bank of Uganda shifting its policy announcements to a quarterly schedule.
Exchange Rate: The Uganda Shilling appreciated by 3.8% year-on-year, supported by foreign exchange inflows and prudent monetary policy.

Residential Sector

Occupancy Levels: Prime residential occupancy dropped to 80%, a 1% decrease from H1 2024, due to oversupply and shifting tenant preferences.
Rental Trends: Average rents for two-bedroom units fell by 7%, while three-bedroom units remained stable. Secondary suburbs saw increased demand and rental growth.
Tenant Shifts: Western expatriate demand declined, partially offset by growing interest from Asian professionals. Short-term rental activity (Airbnb) surged in secondary suburbs, but led to oversupply and lower occupancy.
Gated Communities: Preference for organized, secure neighborhoods increased, with areas like Lubowa, Ntinda, and Kira gaining popularity.
Development Trends: High-density residential projects are expanding in prime areas, but face challenges in absorption due to slow completions and high expectations.

Office Sector

Occupancy Decline: Grade A office occupancy dropped by 5%, and Grade AB by 2%, due to oversupply and tenant relocations.
Rental Rates: Prime rents remained stable at $16.5/sqm/month for Grade A and $14.5/sqm/month for Grade AB. New Grade A buildings saw rents between $18–$22/sqm/month.
Leasing Activity: Smaller space requirements and flexible lease terms dominated the market, with demand from consulting, ICT, and professional services firms.
Suburban Shift: A noticeable shift from CBD to suburban offices, with condominium-style offices gaining traction due to their flexibility and ownership benefits.
Legal Framework: Office condominiums are governed by the Condominium Property Act, Land Act, and Registration of Titles Act, offering businesses ownership and long-term investment potential.

Commercial and Retail Sectors

Commercial Office: Leasing activity remained active, especially for smaller spaces and in non-traditional locations.
Retail: Shopper footfall increased by 13%, and retail occupancy improved by 2%. New international brands and infrastructure upgrades supported this growth.
Industrial Sector: The most resilient segment with 80%+ occupancy and stable warehouse rents (UGX 3–7/sqm/month). Demand from agro-processing, FMCG, and manufacturing sectors was strong, supported by the Uganda Tax Amendment Act 2025 and the Standard Gauge Railway project.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

USAID Funding Suspension: The pause in aid disrupted development and caused layoffs in health, education, and governance sectors, prompting the government to increase the health budget.
RAPEX Program: The restructuring of government agencies is expected to save UGX 1 trillion annually but has caused short-term disruptions.
Market Outlook: Cautious optimism prevails ahead of the 2026 elections. H2 2025 is expected to see continued softening in prime residential rents and occupancy, with a focus on affordability and strategic locations. The office sector may see further downward pressure, but well-located, high-quality assets are likely to maintain stability.

Main Points

Economic Growth: Continued at 6.3% with services as the main contributor.
Inflation Control: Headline inflation at 3.9%, with core inflation at 4.2%.
Residential Market: Softening demand and rising supply, with a shift in expatriate demographics and increased short-term rental activity.
Office Market: Declining occupancy and rising vacancies, driven by new supply and tenant relocations. Suburban and condominium-style offices are gaining popularity.
Industrial Resilience: Strong fundamentals with high occupancy and stable rents, supported by policy and infrastructure.
Political and External Factors: The 2026 elections and USAID funding suspension are influencing market behavior and investment decisions.
Development Pipeline: Prime residential completions remain slow, despite a growing development pipeline, creating a mismatch between supply and demand.

Key Information

Prime Residential Occupancy: 80% (down 1% from H1 2024).
Two-bedroom Rental Decline: 7% drop in average rents.
Grade A Office Occupancy: 5% drop from H1 2024.
Grade AB Office Occupancy: 2% drop from H1 2024.
Industrial Occupancy: Above 80% with stable warehouse rents.
Economic Growth Projection: 7% for FY2025/26.
USAID Funding Suspension: Led to a UGX 604 billion shortfall in the health budget.
RAPEX Program: Expected to save UGX1 trillion annually by streamlining public institutions.
Short-term Rentals: Surged in secondary suburbs, with 37% increase in Airbnb listings over three years.
Office Condominiums: Gaining traction as a flexible and strategic investment option for SMEs and startups.

H2 2025 Outlook

Residential: Expect further moderation in rents and occupancy, especially in older properties. New developments will need to compete with high-spec stock.
Office: Continued shift to suburban and condominium-style spaces. Grade A occupancy may remain under pressure due to oversupply.
Overall: Market performance will hinge on adaptability, infrastructure delivery, and alignment with tenant expectations.

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