2022-10-28-莱坊-The_Office_Market_-_Paris_Greater_Paris_Region_Q3_2022_14页_2mb

报告摘要

France's economy is slowing, with GDP growth projected at 2.6% for 2022 and 0.5% for 2023.
High inflation rates, reaching 5.8% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023, coupled with recession fears and the ongoing health crisis, are impacting economic activity.
Unemployment is expected to reach 7.3% in 2022 and 7.6% in 2023, contributing to declining business confidence.

Total office take-up in Q3 2022 was 491,000 sqm, a slight 8% decrease from the previous quarter but a near 5% increase year-over-year, with cumulative take-up since January reaching 1.58 million sqm (+23% year-on-year).
The Central Business District (CBD) performed strongly, recording high take-up volumes and a record annual result, with Paris accounting for 47% of the take-up in the Greater Paris Region.
Activity in the West of the region increased, but the Inner Suburbs lagged due to weak demand and abundance of supply. The market shows a shift towards smaller lease sizes for large companies.

Investment volumes reached 8 billion Euros since January 2022, a decrease of 13% compared to the 10-year average, but mixed results with Paris dominating the market, accounting for 50% of investment sums.
Key transactions involved luxury companies and other major players, but disagreements between buyers and sellers led to postponed deals, contributing to overall lower volumes.

Available office supply increased in some areas, such as the Inner Suburbs, leading to higher vacancy rates. For example, Péri-Défense has a vacancy rate exceeding 20%, contrasting with the CBD's low vacancy at 55%.
New supply projections indicate significant development in the Western Crescent and La Défense, with projects potentially adding over 830,000 sqm by 2024, contributing to supply-driven conditions.

Uncertainty remains due to economic slowdown, high inflation, and supply-demand imbalances. Investment volumes are expected to stay below average, while lettings may face pressure from reduced occupier relocations.
Recovery in the West is promising, but the market could test its resilience to economic deceleration. Price corrections and evolving supply may affect future absorption.

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