战略与国际研究中心-Violence-in-Iraq_37页_3mb

Summary of "Violence in Iraq: Reaching an 'Irreducible Minimum'"

Core Content

This report, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman and published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on February 25, 2008, provides an analysis of the state of violence in Iraq, particularly focusing on the reduction in attacks and casualties following the "surge" strategy implemented in 2007. It outlines both the progress made and the remaining challenges that threaten long-term stability.

Main Points and Key Information

Progress in Reducing Violence

• Major Gains: The U.S. and Iraqi forces have made significant progress in defeating Al Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI) and reducing its operational area.
• Shift in Tactics: The strategy has moved from "win" tactics to "win and hold," aiming to deny AQI the ability to recover.
• Reduction in Violence:
  • Civilian deaths have dropped to 1/6th of their peak levels.
  • Attack frequency has returned to early 2005 levels, with a 63% reduction in IED explosions and 89% reduction in IDF (Improvised Explosive Device) attacks.
  • Ethno-sectarian violence, including attacks between Shi'ites and Sunnis, has decreased from nearly 1,100 incidents in December 2006 to over 100 in November 2007, and deaths from nearly 2,200 to around 200.
• Coalition and Iraqi Security Force (ISF) Collaboration:
  • The Sons of Iraq program has contributed to the reduction of violence, with over 31,000 participants and significant intelligence support.
  • Concerned Local Citizens (CLC) have played a key role in reducing violence, leading to $5.4M in costs and $5.3M in savings for the Coalition.

Remaining Challenges

• AQI Persistence: AQI is still active, particularly in Ninewa Province, and is shifting operations to more secure areas.
• Ethno-Sectarian Tensions:
  • Arab-Kurd-Turcoman tensions in the north and Shi'ite-Sadr vs. Hakim factions in the south remain serious threats.
  • Ethnic and sectarian cleansing continues at lower levels, affecting displacement, extortion, and home/business seizures.
• Criminal Violence:
  • Pervasive criminal activity, including extortion and corruption, remains a problem.
  • The impact on refugee repatriation and relocation is not fully measurable due to data limitations.

Strategic Patience Required

• Baghdad: Despite a 67% decline in attacks, the city still requires time and sustained aid to achieve lasting stability.
• Security Integration: The slow integration of CLC members into Iraqi government institutions is a concern.
• Political Accommodation: Strategic patience is necessary to build a stable, functioning government and to translate political progress into real security.

Surge Operations and Their Impact

• Surge Operations: Nine division-level operations (e.g., MARNE TORCH, MARNE AVALANCHE) led to:
  • 3,802 extremists detained
  • 1,506 IEDs found and cleared
  • 718 caches found and cleared
• Security and Infrastructure:
  • MND-C has occupied 50 bases, with 12,194 soldiers stationed.
  • CERP (Commander's Emergency Response Program) has invested $117 million into local economies and improved health, water, and electricity access in several provinces.
• Governance Progress:
  • Provincial Iraqi Control (PIC) initiatives have been successful in 80% or more of budgets committed.
  • Local governance and community infrastructure have improved in areas like Jurf As Sakhr, Arab Jabour, and Mada'in Qada.

Long-Term Challenges

• Security, Governance, and Development:
  • Security: Iraqi forces need to be capable of internal security by 2012 and defend against external threats by 2018.
  • Governance: Federalism and ethno-sectarian issues must be resolved.
  • Development: Economic development and aid programs are crucial for long-term stability and to reassure Sunni allies.
• Plan B: A flexible strategy is needed to respond to potential civil war or military bloodbath, with caution in intervention and clear basing plans.

Conclusion

While significant progress has been made in reducing violence and improving security and governance in Iraq, the report emphasizes the need for strategic patience and sustained investment to ensure long-term stability and prevent a resurgence of violence. The integration of local forces, political reconciliation, and economic development are key to achieving this goal.