战略与国际研究中心-The-Uncertain-Security-Situation-in-Iraq_51页_1mb

Summary of the Uncertain Security Situation in Iraq

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the security situation in Iraq from 2004 to early 2010, focusing on the trends in violence, casualties, and public perception of security. It highlights the progress made in reducing violence and the ongoing challenges that continue to threaten stability.

Main Points

• Security Progress: Iraq has seen a significant reduction in violence and casualties compared to the peak years of 2006-2008. By early 2010, the number of security incidents had decreased by 83% over the past two years, and U.S. military deaths had dropped by more than 90%.

• Types of Violence: The primary forms of violence include:

  • Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attacks, which decreased by 80%.
  • Car bomb and suicide-vest attacks, which decreased by 92%.
  • Large-scale bombings targeting government and foreign entities, which remain a concern despite the overall decline.

• Violent Groups: Although Al Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI) and other insurgent groups have lost much of their strength, they still pose a threat through targeted attacks. The Sadr militia and other Shi'ite extremist groups have also seen a reduction in influence, though some remain active.

• Security Incidents by Province: Violence has become more localized, with most incidents concentrated in Baghdad, Diyala, Ninewa, and Salah ad Din provinces. The overall decline in security incidents is reflected in each of these provinces, with some areas seeing a reduction of up to 77%.

• Casualty Trends:

  • Civilian casualties have decreased significantly, with 125 deaths in September 2009, the lowest since 2003.
  • Ethno-sectarian violence has also declined, though it remains a persistent issue.
  • Military casualties, both for the ISF and U.S. forces, have dropped by 79% and 93%, respectively.

• Irreducible Minimum of Violence: General Odierno warned that while the level of violence had decreased, it had not ended. He identified a potential "irreducible minimum" of violence that could persist due to unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions. This was confirmed by continued high-profile attacks, such as those on August 19th, October 25th, and December 8th, 2009, which targeted government and security institutions.

• Political and Institutional Challenges: The Iraqi government is still struggling with:

  • Internal divisions between ethnic and sectarian groups.
  • Weak governance and institutional capacity.
  • Arab-Kurd tensions, which are identified as the primary driver of instability.
  • Lack of consensus on the structure of the representative government, especially regarding power distribution, revenue sharing, and election systems.

• Economic and Social Factors:

  • The Iraqi economy, heavily reliant on oil revenues, has faced budget shortfalls due to the decline in oil prices.
  • Decades of infrastructural neglect continue to hinder development and stability.
  • Foreign investment remains cautious due to ongoing security risks.

• Role of the U.S.:

  • The U.S. has played a key role in reducing violence through military operations and security support.
  • However, the U.S. is gradually withdrawing from urban areas, relying more on host nation reporting.
  • The U.S. continues to support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and works to secure Iraq's borders with Iran and Syria through both security and diplomatic efforts.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The analysis is based on reports from MNF-I, USF-I, SIGIR, and GOI.
• Security Incidents: The document includes detailed charts and graphs showing the decline in violence over time.
• Election Impact: The national elections in March 2010 are expected to influence the security situation, as political tensions may increase during the campaign period.
• Public Perception: While Iraqi confidence in the government and security forces has improved, the threat of continued violence and external interference remains a concern.

Conclusion

Despite significant improvements in security, Iraq remains in an uncertain and fragile state. The decline in violence is real but not complete, and the root causes of instability—such as ethnic and sectarian divisions, weak governance, and external influences—continue to challenge the country's progress. The U.S. role is evolving, with a focus on supporting the Iraqi government rather than direct military engagement. The path to long-term stability depends on political reconciliation, institutional strengthening, and addressing underlying conflicts.