战略与国际研究中心-The-Situation-in-Iraq_48页_4mb

Summary of "Creating a Stable and Secure 'Iraqracy'"

Core Content

This document, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman and published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, outlines the need for strategic patience in post-Surge Iraq. It highlights the progress made in reducing violence, the role of local forces, and the ongoing challenges in security, governance, and development. The report is based on data from the Multi-National Force - Iraq (MNF-I) and other intelligence sources up to January 2008.

Main Points and Key Information

Strategic Patience as a Necessity

• Strategic patience is required to consolidate gains and achieve long-term stability in Iraq.
• The U.S. military surge has led to significant reductions in violence, but lasting stability needs time and political accommodation.
• Rushing to withdraw forces could leave the country vulnerable to renewed sectarian violence or new conflicts.

Key Strategic Objectives

• Consolidate gains against Al Qa’ida in Mesopotamia (AQI) by:
  • Moving toward stable accommodation through reforms such as the de-Baathification law, provincial powers act, and oil law.
  • Controlling Shi’ite militias (Sadr forces) and preventing sectarian and ethnic cleansing.
  • Ensuring Sunni Sheiks are recognized and supported by the central government.
  • Stabilizing provinces with serious conflict (Ninewa, Salah ad Din, Diyala).
  • Limiting Iranian influence and Arab-Kurd-Turcoman tensions.
  • Resolving federalism issues through peaceful referendums.
  • Developing a truly capable Iraqi Army and regular forces to phase out U.S. military involvement.

Progress in Reducing Violence

• Major drop in violence from early 2006 to mid-2007, with:
  • Civilian deaths reduced to 1/6th of their peak.
  • Attack frequency down to early 2005 levels.
  • High-profile bombings decreased by 63% from June 2007 to December 2007.
  • IED explosions dropped to one-third of their peak level in 2006-2007.
• Ethno-sectarian violence has also decreased significantly:
  • Incidents dropped from nearly 1,100 in December 2006 to over 100 in November 2007.
  • Deaths from nearly 2,200 to around 200 in the same period.

Role of Local Forces and Initiatives

• Concerned Local Citizens (CLC) have been crucial in reducing violence:
  • Reduced deaths, equipment losses, and replacement costs.
  • Monthly savings of $5.3 million for the U.S. military.
  • Increased IED and cache discovery through local intelligence.
• Sons of Iraq (SOI) have contributed significantly:
  • 31,999 SOIs across the MND-Center.
  • 150 security contracts to provide infrastructure security.
  • 385 caches, 286 IEDs, and 70 rewards paid to SOIs.

Security and Governance Progress

• Provincial Iraqi Control (PIC) has seen significant progress:
  • Babil, Karbala, Najaf, and Wasit have achieved 90-100% of their budgets.
  • Courts, judges, and infrastructure (electricity, water, roads) have been improved.
• CERP (Commander's Emergency Response Program) has infused $117 million into local economies and improved health clinics.
• Security operations such as CLEAR, TASK FORCE MARNE, and multi-national divisions have secured Baghdad and reduced attacks by 74% and 89% respectively.

Remaining Challenges

• AQI is still active, shifting operations to Ninewa and Mosul.
• Ethno-sectarian tensions persist in Baghdad, Basra, and the north.
• Iran and Syria continue to be sources of concern.
• Local criminal justice systems and security forces need reforms and integration.
• Economic development and job creation are essential for long-term stability, especially for the 15-25 age group.

Long-Term Goals

• By 2012, the Iraqi Army should be independent for internal security.
• By 2018, the Iraqi military should be capable of defending against external threats.
• Reforms in police, criminal justice, and governance must be completed to ensure effective local and national institutions.
• Federalism and ethno-sectarian issues must be resolved to create a stable Baghdad and Basra.
• Economic and development programs must be implemented to revive infrastructure and create a sustainable economic base.

Conclusion

• While significant progress has been made in reducing violence and improving local governance, strategic patience is still required to achieve lasting stability.
• Integration of local forces into national institutions and reforms in security and governance are critical for sustaining peace.
• The U.S. must remain engaged to support the Iraqi government and ensure regional stability.