巴黎银行-新兴市场-投资策略-新兴市场资金流动：投资组合资金在6月份流入有所增加-20190701-7页_441kb

EM Flows Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of emerging market (EM) portfolio inflows in June 2019, focusing on equity and debt flows, the performance of the US dollar, and the BNP Paribas EM portfolio flow model. It also includes legal and regulatory disclosures for various jurisdictions, highlighting the non-independent research nature of the report and the potential conflicts of interest.

Key Findings

• June 2019 Inflows:

  • Total EM portfolio inflows amounted to USD40.8bn in June 2019.
  • Equity inflows were USD12.6bn, up from a USD14.3bn outflow in May.
  • Debt inflows reached USD28.2bn, with the largest inflows in EM Asia (USD18.3bn) and Latin America (USD5bn).

• Trend Analysis:

  • The inflow trend in Q1 and Q2 2019 has supported a more supportive EM outlook.
  • There is a strong correlation between EM portfolio flows (12-month rolling) and USD performance.
  • A reversal in the downtrend of 12-month cumulative flows was observed, in line with a slight weakening of the US dollar on a trade-weighted basis.

• Model Projections:

  • The BNP Paribas EM portfolio flow model, introduced in Q4 2018, has shown strong performance.
  • Updated with June data, the model projects that EM portfolio inflows could rise to USD55bn over the next three months.
  • The model has an R² of ~60%, indicating a good fit.
  • All variables are statistically significant at less than 1% confidence level, and there is no correlation between variables.

• Risk Appetite:

  • The main central banks have turned dovish, indicating an increased appetite for risk, which aligns with the risk premium model.

Supporting Visuals

• Figures 1-3: Compare IIF EM portfolio flows with the BNP Paribas model (in USD billions).
• Figures 4-7: Show the relationship between EM portfolio flows and US dollar trade-weighted index (TWI) performance.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• The document is a marketing communication and not investment research under MiFID II.
• It may contain Research as defined under MiFID II unbundling rules, which is only available to certain professional clients and eligible counterparties.
• BNP Paribas and its affiliates may have conflicts of interest, including acting as market makers, advisors, or underwriters.
• Indicative prices are provided for informational purposes only and do not represent actual transaction terms.
• The document does not constitute a prospectus and is not intended for retail investors in certain jurisdictions.
• Options and ETFs discussed in the document carry significant risks and are only suitable for sophisticated investors.
• Restricted securities may not be offered or sold in the U.S. without registration or exemption.
• Legal restrictions apply to the distribution of the document in Canada, the U.S., and other jurisdictions, depending on the recipient's status.

Jurisdictional Information

• United States:

  • Document is distributed only to institutional investors or through BNPPSC.
  • Certain securities may not be registered and are restricted under U.S. securities laws.

• UK:

  • Document is communicated by BNPP London Branch, authorized by the ECB, ACPR, and FCA.

• France:

  • Produced and distributed by BNPP SA and BNPP Arbitrage, both authorized and supervised by ECB and ACPR.

• Germany:

  • Distributed by BNPP S.A. Niederlassung Deutschland, authorized and supervised by ECB and ACPR, with limited regulation by BaFin.

• Belgium:

  • Distributed by BNPP Fortis SA/NV, authorized by ECB and National Bank of Belgium, and supervised by FSMA.

• Ireland:

  • Distributed by BNPP S.A., Dublin Branch, authorized and regulated in France.

• Italy:

  • Distributed by BNPP Succursale Italia, authorized by ECB, ACPR, and Bank of Italy.

• Netherlands:

  • Distributed by BNPP Fortis SA/NV, Netherlands Branch, authorized by ECB, National Bank of Belgium, and supervised by FSMA and AFM.

• Portugal:

  • Distributed by BNPP - Sucursal em Portugal, authorized by ECB, ACPR, and Banco de Portugal, and registered in Lisbon.

• Spain:

  • Distributed by BNP Paribas S.A. Branch in Spain, authorized by ECB and Bank of Spain.

• Switzerland:

  • Intended for Qualified Investors as defined by CISA and CISO.
  • BNPP (Suisse) SA is authorized as a bank and securities dealer by FINMA.

Summary

The report highlights a positive trend in EM portfolio inflows, particularly in June 2019, with a total of USD40.8bn, driven by equity and debt inflows. The BNP Paribas model suggests potential for further inflows up to USD55bn in the next three months, based on a strong statistical relationship between flows and USD performance. The weakening US dollar and dovish central banks indicate increased risk appetite. However, the document is non-independent research and includes important disclosures regarding conflicts of interest, use of indicative prices, and jurisdictional restrictions. It is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties only.