2025-06-11-花旗集团-蓝威斯顿（LW）_蓝威斯顿（LW.N）_下调盈利预期_主要因2026财年利润率持续承压_15页_552kb

Summary of Lamb Weston (LW.N) Research Report

Citi Research lowers its earnings estimates for Lamb Weston (LW.N) due to ongoing foodservice industry volume pressures and the anticipated continuation of price competition. The agency reduces its FY25 EPS to $3.12 (from $3.16) and FY26 EPS to $3.39 (from $3.43), attributing this to margin compression and unlikely volume recovery. Consequently, the target price is lowered to $60 from $61, reflecting an 18.7% EBITDA margin for FY26, below the Visible Alpha consensus of 19.5%.

The report cites risks, including persistent price competition, potential delays in foodservice demand improvement, and challenges in customer retention. Despite this, Lamb Weston has a neutral investment rating, with a target multiple derived from a 50/50 weighting on P/E and EV/EBITDA. Fiscal performance data indicates margin declines, with support from modest improvements in QSR spending shown via Citi's Card Insights.

Analysts speculate on additional restructuring or savings plans amid activist pressure, noting historical SG&A margin increases. Valuation suggests a slight premium to current forward multiples, while risks focus on operational or competitive adverse events.