2015年-世界发展银行全球_Trading_Away_from_Conflict___Using_Trade_to_Increase_Resilience_in_Fragile_States_153页_3mb

Summary of Trading Away from Conflict: Using Trade to Increase Resilience in Fragile States

Core Content

This report, Trading Away from Conflict: Using Trade to Increase Resilience in Fragile States, authored by Massimiliano Cali, explores how trade and trade policy can influence the risk and intensity of conflict in fragile states. It highlights the potential of trade to both exacerbate and mitigate conflict, depending on the economic, political, and social conditions in a country.

The report emphasizes that trade can significantly impact conflict through three main mechanisms:

• Opportunity Cost Effect: Changes in real incomes due to trade can alter incentives for participation in conflict, as higher returns from more productive activities may reduce the appeal of violence.
• Rapacity Effect: The value of export commodities can incentivize conflict, as control over valuable resources becomes a key objective for both governments and rebels.
• Resource Effect: The ability of governments and rebels to fund their activities through taxation of export commodities means that changes in their value directly affect the sustainability of conflict.

The study uses a combination of cross-country data, country-specific case studies (Nigeria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict), and empirical analysis to support these mechanisms. It finds strong evidence for the rapacity effect, where increases in the prices of exported oil and minerals significantly raise the risk of conflict. In contrast, the opportunity cost hypothesis receives limited support at the cross-country level, but is more evident in within-country studies, especially in the context of Nigeria and the West Bank and Gaza.

Main Findings

• Trade Flows in Fragile Countries: These countries tend to have less diversified trade and are more dependent on primary commodities, making them more vulnerable to price volatility.
• Impact of Trade on Conflict: The report shows that changes in export prices can increase conflict intensity, especially when these changes are not offset by domestic policies that protect real incomes.
• Case Study Evidence:
  • In Nigeria, a 10% increase in oil prices raised conflict events by 2%.
  • In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, higher export revenues were associated with lower conflict levels in areas with significant private sector employment.
• Role of Institutional Capacity: Stronger governance and institutional capacity help reduce the impact of trade shocks on conflict.
• Neighboring Countries: Trade with neighbors can reduce both the duration and intensity of conflict, especially under regional trade agreements.

Key Policy Recommendations

1. Limit Access to Resource Revenues:

   • Reduce government and rebel access to revenues from point-source commodities.
   • Options include improving transparency, direct payments to citizens, and transferring revenues to producing regions.

2. Protect Real Incomes:

   • Implement targeted transfers, public works, price subsidies, and temporary trade insulation to shield producers, consumers, and workers from adverse trade changes.

3. Promote Labor-Intensive Exports:

   • Increase market access for labor-intensive goods in key trading partners.
   • Enhance the competitiveness of these exports through trade connectivity and productivity improvements.

4. Strengthen Trade Relations with Neighbors:

   • Reduce policy barriers to trade, especially in fragile regions.
   • Improve transport and logistics infrastructure to facilitate trade between neighboring countries.

5. Address Structural Determinants of Conflict:

   • Focus on reducing ethnic divisions, economic inequality, and the legacy of past conflicts.
   • Strengthen accountability and control of corruption to build long-term resilience.

Empirical Evidence and Methodology

• The report uses cross-country data from 1960 to 2010 and country-specific case studies (Nigeria, 2004–13; Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 2000–04).
• It employs zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models and regression analysis to assess the relationship between trade and conflict.
• The study also addresses endogeneity issues by using exogenous shocks and instrumental variables, particularly in the context of Palestinian exports.

Data and Methodological Notes

• The report acknowledges the challenges in data collection, especially in fragile states.
• It includes detailed information on data sources, such as the ACLED dataset for conflict events and PLFS for labor force data.
• The COW and CPIA datasets are also used to measure conflict and institutional quality, respectively.

Conclusion

The report argues that trade policy in fragile states should be designed with a fragility lens, recognizing the complex interactions between trade flows and conflict dynamics. It advocates for policies that reduce the vulnerability of economies to trade shocks, promote inclusive growth, and enhance institutional resilience. By doing so, trade can be a tool for conflict prevention and stabilization, especially in regions with high levels of poverty and political instability.

References

• Dube, W., & Vargas, J. (2013). The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks on Conflict in Colombia.
• Berman, N., et al. (2014). Conflict and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Maystadt, P., et al. (2014). Conflict and Economic Development in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
• World Bank (2011a, 2011b). Conflict and Development.
• World Bank (2012). Trade Facilitation in Fragile States.
• Anderson, K., Ivanic, M., & Martin, W. (2013). Targeted Transfers and Conflict Mitigation.
• Attanasio, O., et al. (2013). Trade Shocks and Social Protection.

Appendices

• Appendix A: Discusses data issues, particularly the challenges of measuring trade and conflict in fragile states.
• Appendix B: Provides detailed estimation methodology and empirical results, including the use of ZINB models and the impact of trade variables on conflict outcomes.