2016年-世界发展银行全球_Russia_Economic_Report_No_36_November_2016___The_Russian_Economy_Inches_Forward_-_Will_that_Suffice_to_Turn_the_Tide__38页_1mb

Russia Economic Report Summary (No. 36 | November 2016)

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the Russian economy from 2015 to 2016, highlighting the ongoing recession, fiscal and monetary policy responses, and the broader implications of these trends on growth, poverty, and inequality.

Main Economic Developments (2015 - 2016)

1.1 Growth: The recession continued, but the pace of GDP decline slowed

• Global Growth: Global growth slowed to 2.2% in the first half of 2016, the weakest since 2013. Advanced Economies (AE) underperformed, while some commodity importers showed robust growth, with China being an exception due to its shift from manufacturing to services.
• Russia's Growth: Russia's recession continued, but the pace of GDP decline slowed. Real GDP shrank by 0.9% y-o-y in the first half of 2016, compared to -3.7% in 2015.
• Domestic Demand: Domestic demand remained depressed, with household consumption being the largest negative contributor to GDP growth.
• Non-tradable Sectors: Growth in non-tradable sectors helped slow the recession, while tradable sectors contributed zero to GDP growth in the first half of 2016.
• Investment: Investment demand improved, adding one percentage point to GDP growth, but fixed capital investment contracted by 7.1% y-o-y due to high credit costs and policy uncertainty.

1.2 Balance of Payments: Capital outflows subsided

• Current Account Surplus: The current account surplus dropped to $15.6 billion (1.8% of GDP) in the first half of 2016, compared to $54.4 billion (5.5% of GDP) in the same period last year.
• Trade Balance: The trade balance almost halved to $63.1 billion (7.1% of GDP) from $118.2 billion (11.8% of GDP) last year due to lower export proceeds and a contraction in imports.
• Import Contraction: Imports of goods decreased by 9% y-o-y in the first half of 2016, less severe than in 2015 when the REER depreciated by 17.4%.
• Exchange Rate: The flexible exchange rate policy allowed the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) to depreciate by 8.6% in the first half of 2016, which helped reduce import demand.

1.3 Labor Market & Poverty Trends

• Unemployment: Unemployment remained near minimum levels at 5.6%, supported by flexible wages rather than easy entry/exit in the labor market.
• Poverty: The poverty rate slightly decreased to 14.6% in the first half of 2016, but vulnerability remained high. The share of the vulnerable population with per capita incomes below $10/day increased by 8 percentage points.
• Real Incomes: Real incomes continued to decline, driven mainly by non-wage sources. The poor consumed more food, which helped reduce poverty slightly due to lower food inflation.

1.4 Monetary Policy

• Interest Rates: The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut the key policy rate by 50 basis points in June and September 2016, contributing to a slowdown in inflation.
• Inflation: Inflation in January–October 2016 was 7.4%, down from 15.9% in the same period in 2015. However, inflation expectations remained elevated.

1.5 The Financial Sector

• Banking Sector: The banking sector stabilized, but remains vulnerable to macroeconomic risks such as low growth and weak demand.
• Credit Growth: Bank credit growth remained weak, even after adjusting for forex revaluation.
• Capital Flows: Capital outflows moderated due to lower debt repayments and increased confidence in the ruble.

1.6 Government Budget

• Fiscal Deficit: The federal budget deficit worsened in 2016, reaching 3.7% of GDP by the end of the year, up from 1.1% in the first nine months of 2015.
• Expenditure Cuts: Expenditure cuts were implemented, but they only partially offset the revenue shortfall from oil price shocks.
• Regional Budgets: Regional governments had a surplus in the first eight months of 2016, but are expected to face deficits by the end of the year.
• Reserve Fund: The Reserve Fund is under severe pressure and is expected to be depleted by 2017.

Economic Outlook (2017 - 2018)

• Growth Forecast: The Russian economy is expected to inch towards growth, with a forecast of 1.5% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.
• Oil Price Impact: Oil prices are projected to rise to $55.2/bbl in 2017 and $59.9/bbl in 2018, positively affecting domestic demand.
• Sensitivity to Oil Prices: A 15% increase or decrease in oil prices would change the 2017 growth forecast from 1.5% to 2.1% or 0.7%, highlighting the economy's sensitivity to commodity price fluctuations.
• Non-oil Exports: Non-oil exports of goods decreased by 13.4% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2016, indicating limited diversification and structural challenges.

Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Redistribution: Fiscal redistribution in Russia is mainly through pensions, which have been the main driver of income growth for households.
• Redistribution Effectiveness: Russia's fiscal policy performs better than the U.S., Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Turkey in reducing inequality, but less than the EU.
• Progressive Role: The bottom 60% of the income distribution are net beneficiaries of the budget, underscoring the progressive nature of fiscal policy.
• Tax System: The tax system does not reduce inequality; fiscal transfers, particularly pensions, are more effective.

Key Challenges and Recommendations

• Structural Constraints: The diversification process is slow due to low spare capacity in tradable sectors and limited labor availability.
• Fiscal Sustainability: Fiscal buffers are expected to decrease substantially by the end of 2019, increasing fiscal sustainability risks.
• Policy Uncertainty: Reducing policy uncertainty is crucial to bolstering investor sentiment.
• Medium-term Fiscal Framework: A return to a medium-term fiscal framework is recommended to improve fiscal sustainability and reduce deficits over time.

Conclusion

Despite the ongoing recession, Russia's economy has shown signs of stabilization and modest recovery, supported by fiscal and monetary policy adjustments. However, the economy remains highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations and faces structural challenges in diversification and long-term growth. The progressive nature of fiscal policy is evident, but more structural reforms are needed to address long-standing issues such as aging society and concentrated ownership of productive assets.