2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bangladesh_2015_Article_IV_Consultation_82页_1mb

IMF Country Report No. 16/27: Bangladesh 2015 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The IMF conducted the 2015 Article IV consultation with Bangladesh, concluding on January 20, 2016. The consultation aimed to evaluate the country's economic developments and policies, with a focus on macroeconomic stability, growth, and structural reforms.

Main Views and Key Findings

• Macro Performance: Despite global headwinds and domestic unrest, Bangladesh has maintained strong macroeconomic performance since the last consultation in 2013, supported by prudent fiscal and monetary policies under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement with the IMF.
• Growth: Real GDP growth remained above 6 percent, with projections of 6.3 percent for FY16 and 7 percent in the medium term, assuming continued stability and structural reforms.
• Inflation: Headline inflation eased, but nonfood inflation increased by nearly 2 percentage points, driven by higher wages and energy price hikes.
• Public Debt: The public debt-to-GDP ratio remained stable at a moderate level, while tax revenues underperformed, growing more slowly than GDP.
• External Position: The current account balance swung into a moderate deficit in FY15, but international reserves remained adequate at around 6 months of prospective imports. The external position is broadly consistent with economic fundamentals and desirable policies.
• Private Sector: Private investment and domestic demand have been subdued, partly due to constraints on investment and weak credit growth. The private credit-to-GDP ratio fell below trend, contributing to a negative credit gap.
• Financial Sector: Financial sector weaknesses, including declining asset quality, profitability, and capital adequacy, have hampered credit and growth. State-owned banks (SBs) face governance issues and high nonperforming loans (NPLs).
• Structural Weaknesses: The economy has structural challenges, such as limited diversification of exports, low FDI inflows, and inadequate infrastructure maintenance.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Safeguarding Stability: Maintain a stable public debt-to-GDP ratio and prudent reserve money growth. Strengthen financial sector regulation and supervision, and implement a medium-term fiscal framework for climate change adaptation.
• Boosting Private Investment: Improve public infrastructure, enhance the investment climate, and support a more resilient financial system. Encourage private sector credit growth and align national savings certificate (NSC) interest rates with market rates.
• Creating Fiscal Space: Mobilize domestic revenue through the implementation of the new VAT, reduce regressive energy subsidies, and strengthen tax administration and public financial management.
• Promoting Inclusion: Enhance the progressivity of public spending and the tax system, and further financial inclusion initiatives.
• Exchange Rate and FX Policy: Continue sterilized foreign exchange interventions to maintain the taka/US$ exchange rate stability and consider a basket of trading partners' currencies to guide FX policy.

Economic Indicators (FY2013–17)

Social and Demographic Indicators

• Population: 156 million (FY14)
• Infant Mortality: 33 per thousand live births (2013)
• GDP per Capita: 1110 USD (FY14)
• Life Expectancy: 70 years (2012)
• Adult Literacy: 59% (2012)
• Poverty Headcount Ratio: 32% (2010)
• Population Dependency Ratio: 53% (2013)
• Gini Index: 32 (World Bank estimate)

Macroeconomic Indicators

• Real GDP Growth: 6.0% (FY14), 6.1% (FY15), 6.5% (FY16), 6.3% (FY17)
• GDP Deflator: 7.2% (FY14), 5.7% (FY15), 5.8% (FY16), 6.8% (FY17)
• CPI Inflation (Annual Average): 6.8% (FY14), 7.3% (FY15), 6.4% (FY16), 6.5% (FY17)
• CPI Inflation (End of Period): 8.1% (FY14), 7.0% (FY15), 6.2% (FY16), 6.7% (FY17)
• Nonfood CPI Inflation (End of Period): 7.7% (FY14), 5.4% (FY15), 6.2% (FY16), 6.8% (FY17)
• Total Revenue and Grants: 11.2% (FY14), 10.9% (FY15), 9.9% (FY16), 10.5% (FY17)
• Total Expenditure: 14.6% (FY14), 14.0% (FY15), 13.8% (FY16), 14.9% (FY17)
• Overall Balance (Including Grants): -3.4% (FY14), -3.1% (FY15), -3.9% (FY16), -4.4% (FY17)
• Primary Balance (Excluding Grants): -1.9% (FY14), -1.5% (FY15), -2.1% (FY16), -2.6% (FY17)
• Total Central Government Debt: 34.5% (FY14), 33.9% (FY15), 34.0% (FY16), 34.3% (FY17)
• Credit to Private Sector: 10.8% (FY14), 12.3% (FY15), 13.2% (FY16), 14.7% (FY17)
• Reserve Money: 15.0% (FY14), 15.4% (FY15), 14.3% (FY16), 13.5% (FY17)
• Broad Money (M2): 16.7% (FY14), 16.1% (FY15), 12.4% (FY16), 13.5% (FY17)
• Exports (FOB): 26.6 billion USD (FY14), 29.8 billion USD (FY15), 30.8 billion USD (FY16), 32.6 billion USD (FY17)
• Imports (FOB): -33.6% (FY14), -36.6% (FY15), -40.7% (FY16), -43.3% (FY17)
• Current Account Balance: 2.4% (FY14), 1.4% (FY15), -1.6% (FY16), -2.7% (FY17)
• Capital and Financial Account Balance: 3.5% (FY14), 3.4% (FY15), 5.6% (FY16), 4.7% (FY17)
• Foreign Direct Investment: 1.7% (FY14), 1.4% (FY15), 1.7% (FY16), 1.9% (FY17)
• Gross Official Reserves: 15.1 billion USD (FY14), 21.4 billion USD (FY15), 24.9 billion USD (FY16), 27.2 billion USD (FY17)
• Exchange Rate (Taka per USD, Period Average): 79.9 (FY14), 77.6 (FY15), 77.7 (FY16)
• Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (2010=100, Period Average): 86.9 (FY14), 89.7 (FY15), 95.4 (FY16)

Main Challenges

• Private Investment and Demand: Private investment and domestic demand have been weak, with a negative credit gap.
• Tax Revenue: Tax-to-GDP ratio has fallen, indicating persistent weaknesses in tax policy and administration.
• Political Uncertainty: Political tensions and episodes of unrest have affected economic activity.
• Financial Sector Weaknesses: Declining asset quality, profitability, and capital adequacy in the banking sector, particularly in state-owned banks.
• Structural Weaknesses: Exports remain concentrated in the garment sector, and FDI inflows are below average for low-income countries.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board commended Bangladesh's macroeconomic performance and highlighted the importance of continued implementation of prudent policies and structural reforms. The outlook is positive if political stability is maintained and investment constraints are eased. Key priorities include enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, improving the investment climate, and strengthening the financial sector.