2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Israel_Article_IV_Consultation_70页_3mb

报告摘要

2015 Article IV Consultation with Israel Summary

Core Content

The 2015 Article IV Consultation with Israel, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), evaluated the country's economic performance and policy challenges. The consultation concluded on September 4, 2015, following discussions with Israeli officials in December 2014 and June 2015. The documents released include a Press Release, Staff Report, Informational Annex, Staff Statement, and a Statement by the Executive Director for Israel.

Main Economic Developments

Growth: Israel's economy had a strong performance, with real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2014, expected to be 2.5% in 2015 and 3-3.3% in the medium term.
Employment: Employment growth was robust at 3.5% annually, and unemployment reached multi-decade lows at 5.3% in 2015Q1.
Inflation: Inflation was negative, but this was attributed to temporary external factors rather than domestic weakness. It was expected to return to the target band in the following year.
Debt: Debt had declined to 67% of GDP from a peak of 94% in 2003, but was expected to rise again due to revised deficit targets.
Housing Market: Housing prices increased by around 4% year-on-year, prompting government initiatives to increase supply and macroprudential measures to control household leverage.

Key Policy Challenges

Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit was high and persistent, with repeated revisions delaying progress. The deficit for 2015 and 2016 was raised to 2.9% of GDP, compared to previous targets of 2.5% and 2.0%.
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Israel kept interest rates on hold, as inflation was expected to return to target next year.
Productivity and Inequality: Labor productivity growth and levels were low, and income inequality was among the highest in advanced economies. The government has prioritized boosting competition and integrating the Israeli-Arab and Ultra-Orthodox Jewish (Haredi) populations into the labor force.
Financial Stability: The financial system was generally sound, but risks from housing and construction exposure needed careful monitoring. The establishment of a Financial Stability Council was recommended.

Main Recommendations

Fiscal Policy: A stronger medium-term fiscal framework with an explicit revenue and expenditure plan is needed to reduce the deficit and build fiscal space. The authorities should consider a mix of revenue and expenditure measures, focusing on efficiency gains and reducing tax expenditures.
Monetary Policy: No monetary easing is needed at the moment, as inflation is expected to recover.
Housing Policy: Increasing housing supply and continuing macroprudential measures to contain financial risks from rising prices are essential.
Structural Reforms: Structural reforms to improve productivity, enhance infrastructure, and better integrate Haredi and Israeli-Arab populations into the labor market are recommended to support long-term growth and reduce inequality.

Selected Economic Indicators

Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Real GDP	5.5	5.0	2.9	3.3	2.6	2.5	3.3	3.2	3.0	2.9	2.9
Domestic Demand	5.2	5.4	3.4	3.4	3.1	4.6	3.4	2.9	2.8	2.7	2.7
Private Consumption	4.8	3.4	2.2	3.9	3.7	4.6	3.3	2.8	2.6	2.5	2.5
Public Consumption	2.5	2.4	3.7	4.0	3.3	2.2	3.4	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0
Gross Fixed Investment	10.0	14.6	3.6	3.6	-2.0	-1.5	3.2	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.4
Potential GDP	3.9	3.6	3.3	3.2	3.1	3.0	3.0	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9
Output Gap (percent of potential)	-0.6	0.8	0.4	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Unemployment Rate (percent)	8.3	7.1	6.9	6.3	5.9	5.3	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2
Overall CPI (end of period)	2.7	2.2	1.6	1.8	-0.2	0.7	2.2	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
Overall CPI (average)	2.7	3.5	1.7	1.5	0.5	-0.1	2.0	2.1	2.0	2.0	2.0
Gross National Saving (percent of GDP)	21.8	22.5	22.5	23.2	24.3	25.3	25.4	25.2	24.8	24.6	24.7
Foreign Saving (percent of GDP)	-3.6	-2.3	-1.5	-3.0	-4.3	-4.6	-4.7	-4.4	-4.0	-3.9	-3.9
Gross Fixed Investment (percent of GDP)	18.2	20.2	21.0	20.2	19.9	20.7	20.7	20.7	20.8	20.8	20.8
Current Account Balance (percent of GDP)	10.5	13.6	16.1	14.6	12.8	7.0	7.1	8.0	8.9	9.5	9.9
Foreign Reserves (end of period, billions of USD)	3.6	2.3	1.5	3.0	4.3	4.6	4.7	4.4	4.0	3.9	3.9

Key Views of the Authorities

The authorities acknowledged the strong economic performance and the challenges ahead.
They emphasized the need to reduce fiscal deficits and increase investment in infrastructure and education.
They supported the use of macroprudential measures to control housing market risks.
They noted that potential GDP growth is expected to be around 3% and that the output gap is small.
They believed that the housing market risks are manageable and that the government's initiatives to boost supply are effective.

Conclusion

The IMF's recommendations focus on strengthening the fiscal framework, maintaining monetary policy stability, addressing housing market risks, and implementing structural reforms to enhance productivity and reduce inequality. The authorities generally agreed with these recommendations, highlighting the importance of a balanced approach to economic policy.

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