IMF国际货币组织全球-Norway_2019-Article-IV-Consultation_73页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 19/159: Norway 2019 Article IV Consultation

Core Content

The 2019 Article IV consultation with Norway by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded on June 10, 2019, following discussions with Norwegian officials from April 25 to May 6, 2019. The report outlines Norway's strong economic performance, supported by higher oil prices, a weaker krone, and a robust labor market. The country is expected to maintain growth in the short term, though challenges related to demographics, oil dependency, and real estate valuations are highlighted.

Main Economic Indicators

Indicator	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Real GDP (percent)	1.2	2.0	1.1	2.0	2.2
Real mainland GDP (percent)	1.2	2.0	1.1	2.0	2.2
Domestic demand (percent)	2.0	2.6	2.0	2.4	1.8
Unemployment rate (percent)	4.7	4.2	3.9	3.7	3.7
Output gap (mainland, -implies output below potential)	-0.9	-0.6	-0.2	0.5	0.7
CPI (average, percent)	3.6	1.9	2.8	2.3	1.7
Core inflation (percent)	3.1	1.4	1.5	1.9	1.9
Gross national saving (percent of GDP)	32.7	33.8	35.7	35.7	35.6
Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP)	28.7	28.2	27.6	28.3	28.6
Current account balance (percent of mainland GDP)	4.6	6.7	9.8	8.8	8.4
Current account balance (percent of GDP)	4.0	5.6	8.1	7.4	7.1
Crude oil price (USD per barrel)	42.8	52.8	68.3	59.2	59.0

Key Views and Outlook

Economic Performance: Norway's economy has shown resilience, with mainland GDP growth expected to reach 2.5% in 2019 and slow to 2.1% in 2020. Growth has been supported by a strong labor market, improved competitiveness, and accommodative monetary policy.
Inflation: Inflation has risen above the 2% target, with headline inflation remaining elevated due to the weak krone and higher foreign producer prices. Core inflation has started to rise, prompting the central bank to normalize monetary policy.
Fiscal Policy: The fiscal stance has been broadly neutral in recent years, with the 2019 deficit target reflecting a mildly expansionary stance. The structural non-oil deficit is expected to remain stable over 2017–2019. The authorities are encouraged to pursue modest fiscal consolidation in 2020 to avoid overheating and support monetary normalization.
Oil Sector: The oil sector has benefited from higher oil prices, which have contributed to increased investment and exports. The break-even price for exploration and extraction has declined, aiding the sector's recovery.
Labor Market: The labor market has improved, with unemployment rates declining and employment growth continuing. However, demographic pressures and a high reliance on sickness and disability benefits are concerns.
Real Estate: Residential house price growth has slowed, but prices remain overvalued. Commercial real estate valuations are growing strongly and are considered stretched, posing risks. The central bank is advised to increase the countercyclical buffer to mitigate these risks.
Monetary Policy: Norges Bank has started to normalize monetary policy, raising the main policy rate by 50 basis points since August 2018, with further rate hikes anticipated. The central bank's forward guidance suggests a cautious approach to avoid an overappreciation of the krone.
Fiscal Rule: The fiscal rule is expected to tighten in the medium term due to demographic pressures and slower growth in the sovereign wealth fund. The authorities are encouraged to find new sources of revenue or expenditure savings to accommodate future spending needs.
Reforms: The report emphasizes the need for structural reforms, particularly in the area of sickness and disability benefits, to improve employment levels and labor market efficiency. Tax reforms are also recommended to shift the tax burden from direct to less distortionary indirect taxes.
AML/CFT: The new AML/CFT law has been approved, giving the Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA) greater powers to enforce compliance. The authorities are encouraged to ensure full compliance with the updated legal framework.
Contingency Measures: The report notes that there is policy space to address potential downturns, and the authorities are advised to be prepared to use this space if needed.

Key Recommendations

Fiscal Consolidation: Target a modest consolidation of 1/4 to 1/2 percent of GDP in the 2020 budget to support monetary normalization and build fiscal buffers.
Tax Reform: Broaden the VAT base and reduce tax incentives for housing to improve the efficiency of the tax system.
Labor Market Reforms: Reform sickness and disability benefit schemes to enhance employment and reduce the burden on public finances.
Monetary Policy: Continue the normalization of monetary policy while being cautious to avoid an overappreciation of the krone.
Financial Sector: Maintain macro-prudential measures and increase the countercyclical buffer to address commercial real estate risks.
Data Gaps: Close existing data gaps on commercial real estate to better monitor and manage risks.
Social Protections: Ensure that any reforms are accompanied by targeted social transfers to protect vulnerable households.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board welcomed Norway's solid economic performance and supported the current fiscal and monetary policies. They emphasized the need for continued reforms to address long-term challenges, including demographic pressures, declining oil production, and real estate risks. The report highlights the importance of maintaining a balanced fiscal stance, improving labor market efficiency, and ensuring financial sector stability. The authorities are encouraged to use the current favorable environment to implement these reforms and sustain economic prosperity.

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