20140703-杰富瑞-PrimeTime_Asia_11页_310kb

Asia Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of various Asian companies, focusing on their financial performance, valuation, and investment outlook. It includes ratings and price targets from Jefferies analysts, along with key takeaways that highlight the potential and challenges for each company.

Main Points and Key Information

China Property Sector

• Status: The China property sector is approaching a recovery, with stock valuations near the bottom.
• Expectations: Signs of sales pickup may emerge in the second half of the year.
• Risks: Medium-term growth and profitability may be capped due to ongoing China reforms.
• Top Picks: China Vanke, China Resources Land, COGO, and CR Land are highlighted as potential investments.

Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE: VIPS)

• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: $240
• Key Takeaway: Vipshop is a leader in flash sales with strong merchandising and warehousing capabilities. It is expected to grow through organic and acquisition-led strategies.

Goodbaby International Holdings (HKSE: 1086 HK)

• Rating: HOLD
• Price Target: HK$3.45
• Key Takeaway: The recent acquisitions have transformed Goodbaby into a global infant products company, but potential post-acquisition challenges may affect earnings in the short term.

Man Wah Holdings (HKSE: 1999 HK)

• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: HK$16.60
• Key Takeaway: Man Wah is expected to maintain its earnings momentum due to market share gains and cost discipline. The company is seen as a good investment opportunity.

China Petroleum & Chemical - H (HKSE: 386 HK)

• Rating: HOLD
• Price Target: HK$6.60
• Key Takeaway: The company is valued at a discount, and its book value has declined due to low investor bids. The stock is seen as undervalued with potential for recovery.

Internet Sector

• Focus: E-commerce-related companies are expanding their value chain.
• Top Picks: GMO Payment Gateway, GMO Internet, Yahoo! Japan, and Askul are recommended with Buy ratings, while Monotaro and Rakuten are given Hold ratings.
• Key Takeaways:
  • GMO Payment Gateway is seen as a key player in the payment processing market, with a price target of ¥5,400.
  • Askul is entering the second phase of growth after resolving distribution center inefficiencies.
  • Rakuten is under review for potential growth, with a price target of ¥1,400.

Toyota Motor (TSE: 7203 JP, NYSE: TM)

• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: ¥6,600 to ¥7,100 (JP) and $133.62 to $139.80 (US)
• Key Takeaway: Toyota's share price has been recovering, and the company is expected to maintain stable growth. Management's focus on financial leverage and shareholder returns is positive.

Asahi Kasei (TSE: 3407 JP)

• Rating: HOLD
• Price Target: ¥700
• Key Takeaway: The company is undergoing cost-cutting efforts, which should lead to improved mid-term operating performance compared to peers.

Fujifilm Holdings (TSE: 4901 JP)

• Rating: UNDERPERFORM
• Price Target: ¥1,700
• Key Takeaway: TAC film faces increased competition, which could depress prices and affect profitability.

Industrials Sector

• Key Takeaway: The Middle East (ME) markets have shown strong growth, but FY15E growth is expected to be more modest due to a high base effect and slower bid pipelines.
• Top Picks: Hyundai E&C and KCC are recommended for their competitiveness in overseas markets.

S-Oil Corp (KSE: 010950 KS)

• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: KRW80,000
• Key Takeaway: S-Oil is on a steady recovery path, with a 2Q14 operating loss estimated at KRW34bn and net profit at KRW48bn.

Hyundai Heavy Industries (KSE: 009540 KS)

• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: KRW256,000
• Key Takeaway: HHI has secured significant offshore facilities orders, which could lead to strong future performance.

Analysts and Events

• Analysts Marketing: A list of upcoming analyst events and conferences in various locations, including New York, London, Singapore, and others.
• Company Marketing: A schedule of company presentations and events, such as those by Vipshop, Goodbaby, and others.

Ratings and Price Targets

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses a range of valuation methodologies including:

• Market capitalization
• Maturity
• Growth/value
• Volatility
• Expected total return
• Price targets based on analyses of market risk, growth rate, revenue stream, DCF, EBITDA, EPS, cash flow, FCF, EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF, P/FCF, and others.

Important Disclosures

• Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more.
• Hold: Expected total return of plus or minus 15%.
• Underperform: Expected total return of 10% or more negative.
• NR: Rating and price target temporarily suspended.
• CS: Coverage suspended.
• NC: Not covered.
• Restricted: Prohibits certain communications.
• Monitor: No financial projections or opinions provided.

Summary

The document provides a comprehensive overview of the Asian market, focusing on the property, internet, and industrial sectors. Key takeaways include the potential for recovery in the China property sector, the growth prospects of e-commerce and payment processing companies, and the positive outlook for industrial firms like Hyundai Heavy Industries and S-Oil Corp. Analysts are active in promoting their coverage and insights through various events and conferences. The valuation methodologies and rating definitions are clearly outlined to help investors understand the expectations for each stock.