世界发展银行-Uzbekistan---Agri-Food-Job-Diagnostic_100页_5mb

Uzbekistan: Agri-Food Job Diagnostic Summary

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the agri-food job situation in Uzbekistan, focusing on the potential for creating sustainable and inclusive employment opportunities. It outlines the current state of employment in the sector, highlights the role of agriculture in poverty reduction and economic growth, and presents a set of policy recommendations to support job creation in the agri-food system.

Main Points

• Agriculture is a key sector for employment and poverty reduction in Uzbekistan. It accounts for 28% of GDP and 27% of the labor force in 2019.
• Unemployment remains a challenge, with a 9.4% unemployment rate in 2019. The country has a large number of young people entering the labor market, which requires significant job creation.
• Agricultural employment is more inclusive for rural women and youth, and it is expected to play a crucial role in reducing poverty and inequality.
• The Agri-Food Strategy adopted in 2020-2030 aims to develop a competitive, export-oriented, and market-based agri-food sector, which can enhance farm incomes and create new jobs.
• Job creation in agriculture is not only about quantity but also about quality, inclusiveness, and sustainability.
• The shift from cotton and wheat to horticulture is a key strategy to increase labor intensity and productivity in agriculture, which in turn can create more jobs in downstream industries.
• Public policies and investments are essential to support this transition and to improve the competitiveness and inclusiveness of the agri-food system.
• The agri-food system has strong linkages with both upstream and downstream industries, which means more productive agriculture can lead to more employment opportunities in food processing, light manufacturing, and related sectors.
• The report highlights that the current level of technology adoption in Uzbekistan is low, which limits productivity and profitability, and thus labor demand.

Key Information

• Agricultural employment in Uzbekistan is currently around 27% of the total labor force, with 3.2 million people living below the $3.2/day poverty line, mostly in rural areas.
• Job creation in the agri-food system is expected to increase significantly by 2030, with scenarios predicting a 19 to 32 percentage point rise in employment compared to 2019.
• The report emphasizes the importance of small dehkan farms and rural women in the agri-food value chain and calls for policies to support their inclusion in the formal labor market.
• Horticulture subsectors are identified as having strong comparative advantages and market potential for creating more productive and sustainable jobs.
• The Agri-Food Strategy is the main policy framework, but it lacks concrete pathways for job creation, and the role of agriculture in job generation is not fully recognized.
• The report outlines a spectrum of public actions to support job creation, including promoting growth in response to consumer demand, facilitating inclusion of women and small farms, and improving skills and access to finance.

Policy Recommendations

• Promote a shift in land use from cotton and wheat to more labor-intensive and profitable horticulture products.
• Increase the adoption of modern technologies and digital tools to improve productivity and profitability.
• Support the development of secondary cities to create job opportunities in the food and textile industries close to rural areas.
• Improve the investment climate and competitiveness in the food and textile sectors.
• Enhance the inclusion of women and small dehkan farms in the formal labor market through targeted support and policy measures.
• Strengthen public and private sector capacities to ensure food safety, improve sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and support marketing and labeling.
• Invest in vocational training and skills development to align the workforce with the needs of the agri-food sector.
• Improve access to affordable finance for small farmers and firms to enable their integration into modern value chains.
• Enhance the enabling policy environment for the private sector to foster job creation and economic growth.
• Develop transparent statistics and information systems to better monitor and support the agri-food sector.

Outlook for Job Creation

• By 2030, the agri-food sector is expected to create 640,000 more jobs in food and light manufacturing, primarily in fruit and vegetable processing, meat processing, dairy, feed production, and textile and apparel manufacturing.
• These jobs will be more inclusive, available to women and youth in both rural and urban areas, and will help increase household incomes and reduce poverty.
• The report stresses that the transition to a more productive and inclusive growth model is already underway but needs to be supported through improved policies and investments.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan has a significant opportunity to create more sustainable and inclusive jobs in its agri-food system. The shift towards more productive and labor-intensive agricultural practices, supported by public policies and investments, can lead to substantial job creation and economic growth. The report serves as a roadmap for the government to operationalize the implicit job agenda in the Agricultural Strategy, focusing on the development of the agri-food system to meet the growing employment needs of the country.