20180619-中国银行_香港_-Short_Selling_Analysis_for_June_8_6页_531kb_531kb
报告摘要
Short Selling Analysis for June 8, 2018
Core Content
This document presents a short-selling analysis for the week ended June 8, 2018, based on data released by the Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company (HKSC). The analysis focuses on identifying companies that may be vulnerable to short-selling activity using three key criteria: (i) the net change in short positions between June 1 and June 8; (ii) short positions as a percentage of free float; and (iii) the absolute amount of short positions. It is important to note that the analysis is purely quantitative and does not reflect any judgment on the corporate governance or fundamentals of the listed companies.
Key Findings
Companies with Significant Increase in Short Positions
The following companies experienced a notable increase in short positions during the week:
- Crystal International (2232.HK): Short positions rose by 85.9%, equivalent to 3.3% of free float. The increase is attributed to analyst downgrades and concerns about gross margin.
- China Huarong (2799.HK): Short positions increased by 48.4%, equivalent to 5% of free float. Although short positions stabilized after the new chairman was appointed, concerns about the first-half of 2018 results may still be influencing the activity.
- Xinyi Solar (0968.HK): Short positions surged by 25.4%, equivalent to 10.9% of free float. This is likely due to the recent unfavorable feed-in tariff policy for the solar farm industry.
Companies with Significant Decline in Short Positions
The following companies saw a notable decrease in short positions:
- Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK): Short positions dropped by 17.8%, attributed to a moderate rebound in copper prices, with investors treating the stock as a proxy for copper price movements.
Analysis Criteria
The analysis is based on the following three angles:
- Net Change in Short Positions: This measures the change in short positions between June 1 and June 8.
- Short Positions as a Percentage of Free Float: This reflects the proportion of short selling relative to the total number of shares available for trading.
- Absolute Amount of Short Positions: This indicates the total number of shorted shares, providing insight into the scale of short selling activity.
Limitations of the Data
- The HKSC data is released with a one-week delay, making it less timely compared to daily data from the Hong Kong Exchanges (HKEx).
- The data does not cover short-selling activity through over-the-counter (OTC) derivative products, which could be a significant source of short selling.
Summary Table Highlights
Top 50 Short Selling Stocks (Ranked by Net Change)
| Ticker | Company Name | Short Positions (Shares) | Short Positions (HK$) | Net Change | Price (Jun 08) | Price (Jun 15) | Price Change | Market Cap (HK$m) | 2018E PER (x) | 2019E PER (x) | PBR (x) | 2018E Dividend Yield (%) | Short Positions / Turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2232 | Crystal International | 17,201,144 | 134,168,923 | 3.3% | 7.8 | 7.58 | -2.8% | 21,624 | 15.58 | 12.71 | 2.54 | 3.00 | 5.09 |
| 2799 | China Huarong | 331,458,860 | 865,107,625 | 5.0% | 2.61 | 2.56 | -1.9% | 100,020 | 3.34 | 2.99 | 0.64 | 8.50 | 4.40 |
| 968 | Xinyi Solar | 263,702,174 | 690,899,696 | 10.9% | 2.62 | 2.52 | -3.8% | 18,716 | 7.83 | 7.04 | 1.68 | 5.95 | 6.81 |
Top 50 Short Selling Stocks (Ranked by Net Change, Ascending Order)
| Ticker | Company Name | Short Positions (Shares) | Short Positions (HK$) | Net Change | Price Change | Market Cap (HK$m) | 2018E PER (x) | 2019E PER (x) | PBR (x) | 2018E Dividend Yield (%) | Short Positions / Turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3633 | Zhongyu Gas | 850,000 | 5,635,500 | 0.1% | -0.9% | 16,589 | n.a. | n.a. | 5.23 | n.a. | n.a. |
| 3306 | JNBY | 732,000 | 14,713,200 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 10,479 | 19.12 | 15.65 | 6.54 | 3.49 | 0.59 |
Top 50 Short Selling Stocks (Ranked by Percentage of Free Float)
| Ticker | Company Name | Short Positions (Shares) | Short Positions (HK$) | % of Free Float | Price (Jun 08) | Price (Jun 15) | Price Change | Market Cap (HK$m) | 2018E PER (x) | 2019E PER (x) | PBR (x) | 2018E Dividend Yield (%) | Short Positions / Turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3933 | United Lab | 196,333,376 | 1,747,367,046 | 35.0% | 8.9 | 8.38 | -5.8% | 13,633 | 20.69 | 16.76 | 2.09 | 0.70 | 35.09 |
| 2318 | Ping An | 1,375,227,318 | 107,955,344,463 | 26.4% | 78.5 | 79.25 | 1.0% | 1,446,217 | 11.80 | 10.03 | 2.36 | 2.58 | 23.76 |
| 347 | Angang Steel | 218,615,250 | 1,792,645,050 | 20.0% | 8.2 | 8.27 | 0.9% | 57,998 | 8.00 | 7.93 | 0.98 | 3.67 | 12.57 |
Conclusion
The analysis highlights the significant shifts in short selling activity for several companies in the Hong Kong stock market during the week ended June 8, 2018. Companies like Crystal International, China Huarong, and Xinyi Solar are identified as requiring close monitoring due to the sharp increase in short positions. Conversely, Jiangxi Copper experienced a notable decline, suggesting a potential stabilization in investor sentiment. The analysis also underscores the importance of using the HKSC data for tracking weekly changes in short positions, while noting its limitations in covering OTC derivative activity.
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