20181015-中国银河国际证券-Short_Selling_Analysis_for_October_5_6页_584kb

Short Selling Analysis for October 5

Core Content Overview

This document presents a short-selling analysis for the week ended October 5, focusing on the net change in short positions, short positions as a percentage of free float, and the absolute amount of short positions. The analysis is based on data from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HKSFC) and is intended to highlight companies that may be at risk due to increased short-selling activity, as well as those experiencing a decline.

Key Companies and Trends

Companies with Increased Short Positions

• Meituan (3690.HK): Short positions increased by 79.6% during the week, reaching 2.39% of its free float. The 5-day moving average short-selling amount rose to HK$496m from HK$331m.
• CIMC (2039.HK): Short positions surged by 28.1%, equivalent to 2.79% of its free float. The 5-day moving average short-selling amount remained stable at HK$4.84m.
• China Vanke (2202.HK): Short positions fell by 20.8%, down to 3.17% of its free float. The 5-day moving average short-selling amount dropped to HK$26.22m from HK$45.61m.
• Fosun Pharma (2196.HK): Short positions declined by 32.5%, equivalent to 5.33% of its free float. The 5-day moving average short-selling amount fell to HK$6.22m from HK$9.39m.

Other Notable Companies

• Grand Baoxin (1293.HK): Short positions increased by 6.08%, reaching 29.7% of its free float. The price dropped by 2.9%.
• China Resources Cement (1313.HK): Short positions increased by 2.45%, equivalent to 29.7% of its free float. The price fell by 4.0%.
• China Vanke (2202.HK): Short positions fell by 20.8%, equivalent to 3.17% of its free float. The price decreased by 2.9%.
• China Vanke (2202.HK): Short positions fell by 20.8%, equivalent to 3.17% of its free float. The price decreased by 2.9%.

Data Sources and Limitations

• Data Source: The HKSFC provides aggregate short positions data for all eligible stocks every Friday with a one-week delay. The Hong Kong Exchange (HKEx) provides daily short-selling activity data, but it does not specify whether short positions are covered.
• Usefulness: The HKSFC data is useful for tracking the net change in short positions on a weekly basis, providing insight into the outstanding short positions.
• Limitations: The dataset does not cover short-selling activity through Over-the-Counter (OTC) derivative products.

Three Angles of Analysis

1. Net Change in Short Positions: This measures the weekly change in short positions and highlights companies with significant increases or decreases in short-selling activity.
2. Short Positions as a Percentage of Free Float: This provides insight into the relative size of short positions compared to the total number of shares available for trading.
3. Absolute Amount of Short Positions: This indicates the total value of short positions, giving a sense of the magnitude of short-selling activity.

Conclusion

The analysis identifies Meituan and CIMC as companies requiring close monitoring due to their significant increases in short positions. Conversely, Fosun Pharma and China Vanke show a notable decrease in short positions, suggesting a potential easing of short-selling pressure. The HKSFC data offers a valuable tool for tracking short positions, although it has limitations in covering all short-selling activities, particularly those involving OTC derivatives.

Authors

• Wong Chi Man – Head of Research
  Contact: (852) 3698-6317 | cmwong@chinastock.com.hk

• Mark Lau – Research Analyst
  Contact: (852) 3698-6393 | marklau@chinastock.com.hk