20171127-中国银河国际证券-Short_Selling_Analysis_for_November_17_6页_579kb

Short Selling Analysis Summary for November 17

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of short-selling activity in Hong Kong stocks as of November 17, 2017, based on data released by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HKSFC). The analysis focuses on three key criteria: (i) the net change in short positions between November 10 and November 17; (ii) short positions as a percentage of free float; and (iii) the absolute amount of short positions. The goal is to identify companies that may be vulnerable to short-selling activity and those where short positions have decreased, which could indicate a shift in investor sentiment.

Key Companies and Trends

Companies with Significant Increase in Short Positions

1. Q Tech (1478.HK)

   • Short positions increased by 66.6%
   • Outstanding short positions represent 3.8% of the free float
   • Stock price rose by 2.3% during the period
   • Market cap: 18,559 HK$m
   • 2017E PER: 31.49x
   • 2018E PER: 21.04x
   • PBR: 9.05x
   • 2017E Dividend yield: 5.27%
   • Short positions/3-month average daily turnover: 0.59

2. Genescript (1548.HK)

   • Short positions increased by 29%
   • Outstanding short positions represent 4.8% of the free float
   • Stock price rose by 0.7% during the period
   • Market cap: 15,520 HK$m
   • 2017E PER: 67.59x
   • 2018E PER: 54.72x
   • PBR: 10.95x
   • 2017E Dividend yield: 1.34%
   • Short positions/3-month average daily turnover: 1.03

3. CMOC (3993.HK)

   • Short positions increased by 24.5%
   • Outstanding short positions represent 6.5% of the free float
   • Stock price rose by 3.0% during the period
   • Market cap: 241,471,168 HK$m
   • 2017E PER: 30.27x
   • 2018E PER: 22.25x
   • PBR: 2.33x
   • 2017E Dividend yield: n.a.
   • Short positions/3-month average daily turnover: 2.63

4. CPIC (2601.HK)

   • Short positions increased by 13.3x
   • The increase is more likely due to derivative activities
   • Stock price rose by 4.1% during the period
   • Market cap: 446,230 HK$m
   • 2017E PER: 21.27x
   • 2018E PER: 16.96x
   • PBR: 2.36x
   • 2017E Dividend yield: 6.06%
   • Short positions/3-month average daily turnover: 6.58

Companies with Significant Decrease in Short Positions

1. BAIC Motor (1958.HK)

   • Short positions decreased by 14%
   • Stock price increased by 5.5% last week
   • Outstanding short positions represent 3.6% of the free float
   • Market cap: 71,700 HK$m
   • 2017E PER: 13.58x
   • 2018E PER: 9.25x
   • PBR: 1.52x
   • 2017E Dividend yield: 2.72%
   • Short positions/3-month average daily turnover: 3.24

2. China Coal (1898.HK)

   • Short positions decreased by 10.9%
   • Share price rebounded by 4.3% last week
   • Outstanding short positions represent 8.5% of the free float
   • Market cap: 77,050 HK$m
   • 2017E PER: 9.53x
   • 2018E PER: 10.69x
   • PBR: 0.46x
   • 2017E Dividend yield: 2.96%
   • Short positions/3-month average daily turnover: 9.91

Analysis Criteria

• Net Change in Short Positions: The report tracks the weekly change in short positions to identify trends.
• Short Positions as a Percentage of Free Float: This metric helps assess the relative size of short selling in relation to the company's total float.
• Absolute Amount of Short Positions: Provides insight into the magnitude of short selling activity.

Limitations of the Data

• The data from the HKSFC is delayed by one week, which may affect real-time decision-making.
• It does not cover short-selling activity via OTC derivative products, which could be a significant source of short positions.

Conclusion

The analysis highlights the importance of monitoring short-selling activity, particularly for stocks with significant changes in short positions and high percentages relative to free float. While Q Tech, Genescript, and CMOC are flagged for potential short-selling pressure, BAIC Motor and China Coal show a reduction in short positions, which could indicate a positive shift in investor sentiment. Investors are advised to pay attention to any potential profit-taking activity in stocks with rising prices and significant short positions.