20180910-法国巴黎银行-Turkey__Growth_pace_cut_8页_421kb

Turkey: Growth Pace Cut Summary

Core Content

This document provides an economic analysis of Turkey's second quarter growth performance, highlighting a slowdown in domestic demand and a shift towards export-led growth. The report is authored by Hakan Aklar, Chief Economist at Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. (TEB), and outlines the implications for the current account balance and the broader economic structure.

Main Points

Economic Growth Overview

• GDP Growth: Turkey's economy grew at 5.2% year-over-year (y/y) and 0.9% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) in Q2 2018.
• Seasonal Adjustments: The seasonally and calendar adjusted series indicate a slowing down of economic activity.
• Growth Structure: The growth structure has undergone a re-adjustment, with a notable shift from domestic demand to net exports.

Domestic Demand

• Household Consumption: Contracted by 0.4% q/q, down from 3.4% q/q in Q1.
• Investment Expenditures: Declined by 1.4% q/q, following a 4.1% q/q growth in Q1.
• Government Consumption: Grew only 0.2% q/q, compared to 4.8% q/q in Q1.

Net Exports

• Exports: Grew by 2.4% q/q.
• Imports: Contracted by 4.8% q/q.
• Net Export Contribution: Rose by 1 percentage point (pp) in Q2, following a 3.5pp negative contribution in Q1.
• Current Account: Expected to turn into a surplus in the coming months due to the positive net export impact.

Sectoral Performance

• Construction Sector: Contracted by 0.1% q/q.
• Manufacturing Sector: Grew by 0.6% q/q, supported by strong exports.
• Services Sector: Grew by 0.3% q/q.

Savings Rate and Investment

• Savings Rate: Likely fell to 23.9% of GDP, down from 24.4% in 2017.
• Investment to GDP Ratio: Remained at 30.4%.
• Current Account Deficit: Reduced to 6.5% of GDP.

Future Outlook

• GDP Growth Projection: Expected to slow in the second half of 2018, ending the year at around 3%.
• Policy Implications: The soon to be announced medium-term economic programme is anticipated to provide more insight into 2019 growth prospects.

Key Information

• The shift in growth from domestic demand to exports suggests a structural change in the Turkish economy.
• The decline in domestic demand is attributed to a variety of factors, including the weakening of consumer and investment activity.
• The manufacturing sector was a key driver of growth in Q2, supported by strong export performance.
• The current account deficit is expected to narrow due to the positive net export contribution.
• The savings rate is projected to decrease, which could have implications for future investment and economic stability.

Charts Mentioned

• Chart 1: GDP growth (y/y, %)
• Chart 2: GDP growth (swda, q/q %)
• Chart 3: GDP growth (swda, q/q %)
• Chart 4: Saving-investment gap and current account deficit (% of GDP)

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Conclusion

The Turkish economy showed a slowdown in domestic demand but a strong contribution from exports in Q2 2018. This shift suggests a re-adjustment in the growth structure, potentially leading to a current account surplus. The savings rate is expected to fall, and the economy is projected to grow at a slower pace in the second half of 2018. The report highlights the importance of the upcoming medium-term economic programme for future growth expectations.