2025-05-22-Bernstein-FDJ_United（FDJU）_FDJU尼斯会议——已部署强化战略_但面临监管和税收问题_10页_417kb

CONFERENCES FEEDBACK SUMMARY

Company: FDJ United
Event: 2025 Nice Conference
Representation: Marc Willaume, Investor Relations Director

Key Points

1. Rating: Market-Perform

   • Price Target: €37.50
   • Upside/Downside: +14% vs current price €32.96
   • 1Y Range: €39.88 - €26.50

2. Financial Guidance

   • Revenue for FY25: Expected to be roughly stable compared to 2024
   • EBITDA Impact: c.€90m negative impact due to new gaming tax in France (1 July)
   • Additional Regulatory Impacts: Guided for further gaming tax and regulation impacts in the Netherlands and UK

3. Mitigation Measures

   • Cost Reduction: Expected €135m savings via synergies with Kindred from 2026 onwards
   • Sales-Force Reorganization: Internalization to offset part of regulatory impact, potentially +1% margin gain in FY25
   • IT Platform Integration: KSP platform deployment in key Kindred geographies expected in H2 2025

4. Analyst Comments

   • Conviction in Market-Perform rating strengthened post-conference
   • Company had a difficult start to the year, limiting maneuver room
   • Regulatory impacts already lost €45m in revenue (c. €180m on FY basis)
   • Expected mid-to high-single-digit top-line growth and steady EBITDA margin improvement
   • CMD meeting on 24 June expected to provide three-year guidance (2025-2028)

Investment Implications

• Valuation: €37.50 price target based on DCF and peer comparison
• Recommendation: Keep Market-Perform rating, cautious view due to tough start

Risks

• Downside: Regulatory changes (tax increases/payouts), dependence on physical POS, competitive pressure
• Upside: Faster mitigation measures, easing of regulatory pressure

Financial Data

• 2025E Revenue: €3,812m (+25% YoY)
• 2025E EBITDA: €919m (+11% YoY)
• Adjusted EPS (2025E): €2.56
• Dividend Yield (2025): 6.9%

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