2025-06-11-花旗集团-波兰经济_选举后的宏观格局_14页_174kb

Poland Economic Outlook: Post-Election Macroeconomic Scenarios

Executive Summary

This report outlines Citi's updated macroeconomic scenarios for Poland, reflecting the outcome of recent presidential elections and central bank communication shifts. Key themes include higher interest rates and bond yields due to increased risk premiums and fiscal spending, stable inflation trends, moderate GDP growth, and fiscal sustainability challenges following a victory for opposition-backed candidate Karol Nawrocki. The scenario suggests no significant fiscal tightening beyond current plans, leading to a persistent high deficit and elevated debt levels, with policy decisions complicated by upcoming elections in 2027.

Fiscal Outlook

• Poland's fiscal deficit is projected to hover around or slightly exceed 6% in 2026 and 2027 (e.g., 5.7% in 2026, 5.3% in 2027), significantly higher than government plans or European Commission recommendations.
• General government debt is expected to rise to approximately 67% of GDP by 2029, up from 55% in 2024, but remains below the 60% constitutional limit under domestic definitions.
• Defense spending (~5% of GDP) and high debt service costs (forecasted ~3% of GDP in 2025, up from 2.2% in 2024) pose challenges to deficit reduction, supported by the National Escape Clause allowing high deficits without EU sanctions penalties.

Economic Growth

• GDP growth is forecast at 3.7% for 2026, marginally higher than the prior 3.2% estimate, driven by less fiscal tightening (+0.3 percentage points) and reduced U.S. tariffs.
• Projections include sustained growth through 2028 (e.g., ~3.2% annually from 2028 onward), influenced by cyclical factors but with inflation converging toward the target due to weakening CPI momentum.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation is declining, with year-on-year CPI expected to fall below 3% in 2025 and stabilize around 2.4% by late 2026. Core inflation is projected to moderate to approximately 2% by year-end.
• The Monetary Policy Council is delaying significant rate cuts due to medium-term risks; policy rate forecasts indicate cuts may be slow, with terminal rates potentially around 4.25%, higher than market expectations. Data shows inflation trends aligning with NBP's baseline corrections from previous forecasts.

Currency and FX Market

• The Polish złoty (PLN) is neutral to higher interest rates due to the interest rate differential offsetting any negative political risk premium.
• Continued EU funding is expected to benefit Poland despite political uncertainties, sustaining foreign inflows regardless of judicial reform outcomes.

Key Risks

• Fiscal sustainability is a primary concern, with deficit and debt exceeding targets, potentially leading to medium-term policy strains.
• Political factors from the election cycle and upcoming parliamentary elections in 2027 could introduce uncertainty, affecting fiscal and economic decisions.
• Alternative scenarios in the appendix show wide variations, with potential volatility in GDP, inflation, and debt among high, base, and negative forecasts.

Full Report Details

• Detailed figures and charts are provided in the appendices, including inflation and rate forecasts for 2025-2028, GDP and deficit trajectories, and sensitivity analyses for high, base, and negative scenarios.
• Analyst certifications and extensive disclosures are included as per standard Citi Research practice.