2025-05-26-Bernstein-房地产_揭示工业_物流领域-第二部分_76页_12mb

Report Summary: European Industrial/Logistics Real Estate Analysis

This report examines the European industrial/logistics real estate sector, highlighting its role in evolving supply chains and key growth factors. The sector has grown to represent 13% of the total listed European real estate market cap, with a 7% 10-year annualised total shareholder return.

Market Context

• Industrial/logistics encompasses diverse property types, from small boxes (<2.5k sqm) to XXL warehouses (>50k sqm), with varying locations, forms, and uses.
• Market share increased significantly over the past decade, driven by e-commerce growth, population growth, and supply chain evolution.

Key Demand Drivers

• Deglobalization and nearshoring are major long-term trends influenced by geopolitical tensions.
• E-commerce remains a critical driver, while manufacturing-led demand and 3PL providers continue to dominate.
• Supply chain optimizations, including diversification of suppliers and routing changes, support continued demand.

Valuation & Investment Outlook

• The sector trades at a 22% discount to NAV, a level unseen in over 12 years, presenting valuation opportunities.
• European developers focus on pre-letting to de-risk developments, contrasting with higher speculative supply in the U.S.
• Property values have stabilized following a correction but remain resilient.

Stock Recommendations

CTP (Outperform):

• CEE stronghold (87% of portfolio) benefiting from nearshoring trends and development-focused growth.
• Targets 11% yield on cost and offers strong long-term value creation potential.

Segro (Outperform):

• High-quality exposure to urban warehouses and the UK market with embedded rental upside.
• Trading at a significant discount to 2025e NTA (31% discount), with potential for rental growth and data center development.

Investment Implications

• The sector remains pivotal to global supply chains, with geopolitical tensions accelerating nearshoring trends.
• While occupier demand normalised post-pandemic, medium-term space needs are acknowledged, supporting resilience.
• Lower-cost Southern Europe and gateway locations are positioned to benefit from these shifts.

Long-term Outlook:

• Sector performance is driven by supply chain transformation, urbanization, and deglobalization trends, particularly benefiting CEE and gateway markets.
• Despite near-term uncertainties, the sector offers significant value and growth potential.