2014年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Our_Future_Southeastern_Turkish_Frontiers_15页_1mb

CEPS POLICY BRIEF NO. 6: OUR FUTURE SOUTHEASTERN TURKISH FRONTIERS

1. The People of Southeast Turkey

Southeast Turkey is home to a diverse range of ethnic groups, with the Kurdish population being the most significant. Estimates suggest there are between 10 to 15 million Kurds in the region, making them the largest ethnic group without a state. Kurdish dialects such as Kurmancy and Zaza are predominant, though Turkish is the only language taught in schools, leading to the suppression of Kurdish education and broadcasting.

The region also hosts Arab, Syriac, and Armenian communities. The Syriacs, a Christian minority, historically inhabited the area between present-day Turkey and Syria, with their religious and cultural heritage rooted in ancient Aramaic. The Armenians, once a major population in the area, were largely displaced during the Armenian Genocide in 1915, with many killed or forced to leave. The old city of Van, once predominantly Armenian, now serves as a stark reminder of these tragic events.

2. Human Rights and the Southeast

Human rights violations, especially against the Kurdish population, continue to fuel discontent in the region. Despite the formal end of the conflict with the PKK in 1999, the Kurdish community remains resentful due to socio-economic disparities and political marginalization. The state of emergency remains in place in six southeast provinces, restricting freedoms and contributing to a sense of repression.

Kurds protest against the ban on Kurdish language in education and media, the Turkification of cultural heritage, and the limited political representation. The People's Democracy Party (HADEP) is the only legal Kurdish political party, but it faces challenges in gaining parliamentary representation due to the 10% threshold. The Turkish government has proposed constitutional reforms, including Kurdish education and broadcasting, but these have been delayed due to political and economic instability.

3. The Economic Situation in the Southeast

The economic conditions in southeast Turkey are dire, with the region suffering from decades of state neglect. The GAP (Southeastern Anatolia Project) has been a major initiative, aiming to boost development through irrigation, agriculture, and hydroelectric power. While the project has improved some aspects of the economy, it has not eradicated poverty, and its benefits have largely accrued to large landowners.

The economic situation has worsened due to the conflict with the PKK, leading to mass displacement and migration to western Turkey and Europe. The region remains underdeveloped, with high unemployment and poor educational infrastructure. The construction of dams has also threatened cultural and historical sites, such as the medieval settlement of Hasankeyf, which is at risk of submersion.

Tourism, a potential economic driver, has been underdeveloped due to poor infrastructure, lack of information, and the militarization of the region. As a result, most tourists avoid the southeast, limiting its economic potential.

4. Turkey's Troubled Borders

Turkey's relations with its neighbors, particularly Syria and Armenia, are fraught with tension. The GAP project has significantly reduced Syria's water supply from the Euphrates, leading to Syria's covert support for the PKK and near-war tensions in 1998. The Turkish government has sought to improve relations by offering to increase Syria's water share in exchange for ending its support for Kurdish separatism.

The border with Armenia is particularly sensitive, marked by strict controls and a 5 km "outer zone" that is heavily militarized. The Turkish blockade has damaged its international reputation and strained relations with the EU, as the EU has called for the resolution of territorial disputes as a prerequisite for accession. The blockade has also failed to secure Azerbaijan's control over Nagorno-Karabakh and has negatively impacted both countries' economies.

5. Policy Recommendations

To address the challenges in the southeast, the following recommendations are proposed:

• Open the frontier with Armenia following a breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations. This would foster economic and cultural ties and help reduce the siege mentality in Armenia.
• Promote internal reforms driven by a new political class, rather than relying solely on EU membership as an incentive.
• Develop tourism in the southeast by improving infrastructure, providing information, and protecting cultural and historical sites.
• Accelerate the implementation of the GAP project with complementary measures such as micro-credit schemes and resettlement programs to ensure broader economic benefits.
• Enhance cooperation with the EU by resolving territorial disputes and demonstrating political and economic progress.

Annex: Journey to Southeast Turkey

The document includes a journey through the southeast, highlighting the region's rich cultural and historical heritage. It emphasizes the need for a more proactive approach to preserving and promoting this heritage, both for domestic and international recognition.

Summary of Key Points:

• Ethnic Diversity: The southeast is home to Kurds, Arabs, Syriacs, and Armenians, with Kurds being the largest group.
• Human Rights Issues: Persistent repression, cultural neglect, and political marginalization of Kurds contribute to regional unrest.
• Economic Challenges: Decades of neglect, conflict, and unequal development have left the region impoverished and underdeveloped.
• Border Tensions: Relations with Syria and Armenia are strained due to water disputes and the Armenian Genocide legacy.
• Policy Priorities: Economic development, human rights reforms, and border opening are critical for regional stability and EU accession.