2026年首席经济学家展望报告_34页_3mb

Chief Economists' Outlook Summary (January 2026)

Core Content

The Chief Economists' Outlook for January 2026 highlights the evolving economic landscape, focusing on risks, growth, and AI adoption. It is based on surveys and consultations with leading chief economists from both public and private sectors, conducted by the World Economic Forum's Centre for the New Economy and Society. The report underscores the compounding shocks to the global economy, including geopolitical tensions, debt pressures, and asset valuation risks, while also identifying opportunities from AI integration and regional reforms.

Main Points

1. Economic Risks Outlook

• Global Economic Sentiment:
  • 53% of chief economists expect global economic conditions to weaken in 2026.
  • 28% anticipate no change, and 19% expect a stronger economy.
  • This represents a slight improvement compared to the 72% who expected a weakening economy in September 2025.
• Key Risks Identified:
  • Inflated asset prices and rising debt levels are major concerns.
  • Geopolitical tensions continue to affect trade and investment patterns.
• Asset Valuations:
  • The US equity market, especially AI leaders, has seen significant growth, with the top seven tech firms (M7) now holding nearly 35% of the total index market capitalization.
  • Gold has surged 60% this year due to safe-haven demand, especially from central banks.
  • Cryptocurrencies are expected to see further decreases in value, with 62% of respondents anticipating this.
  • US dollar is expected to resume its downward trajectory, with 54% of chief economists foreseeing this.
• Impact of Asset Decreases:
  • A significant decrease in US AI assets is expected to have widespread impacts on the global economy (74% of respondents).
  • In contrast, decreases in gold, cryptocurrencies, or Chinese/European stocks are seen as contained.
  • The timeframe of the impact is expected to be long-lasting for the US dollar, while other assets are likely to see short-lived effects.

2. Debt and Spending Outlook

• Debt Management Strategies:
  • Higher inflation is expected to be a common strategy to reduce debt burdens in both advanced and emerging markets (67% and 61% respectively).
  • Tax increases are also seen as likely in both groups (62% in advanced economies, 53% in emerging markets).
  • Tariffs are viewed as a potential strategy in advanced economies (56%) but less likely in emerging markets (9%).
• Debt Levels:
  • Global public debt reached a record $102 trillion in 2024 and is projected to rise to 100% of GDP by 2029.
  • Emerging markets are expected to grow their debt faster than advanced economies.
• Government Spending Priorities:
  • Defence spending is expected to increase in both groups, with advanced economies showing the strongest support (97% expect increases).
  • Digital infrastructure and energy are also expected to see increased spending.
  • Health and social security are likely to see increased spending in advanced economies, while emerging markets are expected to maintain stable or unchanged levels.
  • Education, research and innovation, and environmental protection are expected to see declines in spending.

3. Growth, Policy and Geoeconomic Outlook

• Trade and Investment:
  • US-China trade tensions have de-escalated, but underlying frictions remain unresolved.
  • US tariffs on Chinese goods remain high (47.5% as of November 14, 2025), and trade policy uncertainty persists.
  • Technology export restrictions are expected to remain unchanged or increase, with chips being a key focus.
  • Chinese export controls on critical minerals are also expected to remain in place or increase, aligning with efforts to secure rare earths.
• Regional Growth:
  • US is focusing on AI and data centre investment, signaling a potential productivity revival.
  • China is balancing external demand with domestic pressures, leveraging technological innovation to sustain growth.
  • Europe faces a subdued outlook due to demographic trends, conflict costs, and fragmented regulations.
  • South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific are bright spots, driven by reforms and integration.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America are struggling with debt and the need for structural transformation.
• Policy Debates:
  • The need to balance fiscal and monetary priorities is intensifying, with public spending on areas like defence, digital infrastructure, and energy expected to grow.
  • Fiscal austerity is not widely expected, with cuts in spending on social security, education, research, and environmental protection seen as unlikely.

AI Adoption Outlook

• AI as a Catalyst:
  • The adoption of AI is expected to be a major driver of both opportunity and disruption.
  • While productivity gains are widely acknowledged, the pace and distribution of these benefits vary across regions, industries, and firm sizes.
• Regional Adoption:
  • China is expected to show strong optimism with over two-thirds of chief economists anticipating increases in AI-related asset values.
  • Europe and the US have more divergent views, with European stocks seeing modest increases and US AI stocks facing decline expectations.
• Industry and Firm-Level Adoption:
  • AI adoption is uneven across industries and firm sizes, with large firms leading in investment and innovation.
  • Productivity gains are expected to be modest in the short term but significant in the medium to long term.
  • Employment impact remains uncertain, with divergent views on long-term effects.

Key Takeaways

• The global economy is expected to face downside risks in 2026, but with improved sentiment compared to the previous year.
• Asset valuations are a key concern, with AI stocks, gold, and the US dollar being central to discussions.
• Debt management and spending priorities are shifting, with increased investment in defence, digital infrastructure, and energy.
• AI is a double-edged sword, offering productivity gains but also disruption in the labor market.
• Regional differences are significant, with China and South Asia showing more positive outlooks, while Europe and emerging markets face greater challenges.
• Policy decisions will be crucial in shaping the future of the global economy, with a focus on resilience, prosperity, and adaptation to technological and geopolitical shifts.